Spartans face a crucial test against surging UCLA. Can Izzo's team rebound and find their identity for a postseason push?
WHO: Michigan State (20-5, 10-4) vs UCLA (17-8, 9-5)
WHERE: Jack Breslin Center – East Lansing, MI
WHEN: Tuesday, January 17, 8:30 PM EST
WATCH: NBCSN
The Spartans carry plenty of pressure into this matchup against a very good UCLA team. After a tough loss last Friday, Michigan State finds itself navigating a turbulent stretch of the season.
But adversity is nothing new for a Tom Izzo-led team. In fact, Izzo has long preached that February losses matter far less than how a team is playing in March. Sometimes, a late-season lull can be exactly what wakes a team up from the grind of a long campaign. And playing under Izzo is always a grind.
That said, with just six regular-season games remaining, the Spartans are running out of time to “figure it out.” A statement win against UCLA could reset the tone and build momentum toward what this team hopes is a historic postseason run.
Early in the season, Michigan State defined itself with decisive wins over programs like North Carolina Tar Heels and Arkansas Razorbacks. That identity — tough, connected, physical — now feels distant amid recent struggles. Recency bias clouds the picture, and Spartan fans are left hoping Izzo can rally the group once again.
It starts Tuesday.
Scouting UCLA
UCLA enters East Lansing coming off a loss to Michigan Wolverines, but prior to that had been surging. The Bruins defeated Purdue Boilermakers and pushed Indiana Hoosiers to a 98-97 double-overtime thriller in their only loss across a five-game stretch.
This is a tough, disciplined team — arguably sitting just a tier below Wisconsin in the conference hierarchy.
UCLA shoots the ball extremely well, ranking tied for 17th nationally in three-point percentage at 38.1%. Defensively sound and careful with the basketball, the Bruins average just nine turnovers per game — also tied for 17th best in the country.
They won’t beat themselves.
Key for Michigan State: Rebound and Defend
Michigan State continues to be powered by breakout star Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the Big Ten — and the nation — with 9.2 assists per game while also averaging 15.1 points. He’s tied for second in the conference in free throws made per game (5.6), a number that’s climbed recently as he’s attacked downhill late in games.
While drawing fouls has kept MSU competitive, it’s also highlighted a concern: too often, the Spartans are playing from behind.
Inside, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper remain among the Big Ten’s top rebounders. Kohler sits second in the conference at 9.3 rebounds per game, while Cooper ranks eighth at 7.2. However, in recent losses, their presence has faded.
Tuesday presents an opportunity to reassert dominance on the glass.
UCLA ranks 306th nationally in team rebounding at just 29.5 boards per game. Meanwhile, Michigan State ranks tied for fifth in the nation at 38.4 rebounds per contest. That disparity must show up on the stat sheet.
If MSU controls the glass and limits UCLA’s three-point looks, the Spartans will be in position to win.
The X-Factor: Turnovers
Ball security may ultimately decide this game.
UCLA protects the basketball exceptionally well. Michigan State, on the other hand, averages 11.1 turnovers per game — not disastrous, but costly in tight matchups. Mental lapses and empty possessions have plagued the Spartans during this rough stretch.
Against a disciplined UCLA squad, giveaways could be the difference between redemption and another frustrating loss.
Prediction
If this game were in Los Angeles, I’d lean toward UCLA. But it’s in the Breslin.
With the home crowd behind them and urgency finally setting in, this feels like the moment Michigan State tightens up defensively, dominates the boards, and grinds out a much-needed win.
Michigan State - 71
UCLA - 68