Michigan State's passing wizardry meets North Dakota State's sharpshooting. Can the Spartans' dominance on the boards secure a win?
WHO: Michigan State Spartans (25-7) vs. North Dakota State Bison (27-7)
WHAT: NCAA Tournament Round of 64
WHERE: KeyBank Center – Buffalo, NY
WHEN: Thursday, March 19th at 4:05 PM EST
WATCH: TNT
Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans are back where they belong—dancing in March. This marks the program’s 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance, a testament to the consistency and culture Izzo has built in East Lansing.
This year’s Spartans are led by the greatest single-season passer in Michigan State history: Jeremy Fears Jr.
Fears broke Cassius Winston’s long-standing MSU record of 291 assists, set during the 2019–20 season. Entering the NCAA Tournament—where assists will continue to count toward the record—Fears sits at 294. That mark currently ranks third all-time in a single season in Big Ten history, trailing only Braden Smith’s 2024–25 total (313) and his current season mark (317 and counting).
As a team, Michigan State thrives on ball movement. The Spartans average 18.5 assists per game, tied for fifth in the nation, a clear reflection of their unselfish style and offensive rhythm.
Down low, the Spartans are anchored by their experienced frontcourt duo: seniors Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper.
Kohler has been a force on the glass, averaging 9.0 rebounds per game—third best in the Big Ten—while also contributing 12.7 points per game, tied for 37th in the conference. However, Kohler is far from a traditional back-to-the-basket big man. He serves as a true wildcard for MSU, stretching the floor with his shooting ability. Averaging 1.6 made three-pointers on 4.1 attempts per game, Kohler provides spacing that opens driving lanes and creates opportunities for his teammates. He’s also proven to be clutch from deep when called upon.
Alongside him, Cooper brings a physical presence in the paint. He averages 7.1 rebounds per game (10th in the Big Ten) and 10.8 points per game (tied for 50th). Cooper controls the interior for Michigan State, and when Coen Carr isn’t soaring through the air for highlight-reel finishes, Cooper is often on the receiving end of Fears’ alley-oop passes—plays that can energize both the team and the crowd in an instant.
With this frontcourt tandem, combined with Carr’s elite athleticism and Jordan Scott’s relentless effort on the boards, Michigan State has consistently won the rebounding battle. The Spartans enter this matchup ranked tied for 15th in the nation in total rebounds per game (36.9) and tied for 27th in offensive rebounds (11.2 per game).
On paper, the numbers highlight a clear contrast in styles between these two teams.
While Michigan State dominates the glass and excels in ball movement, North Dakota State thrives from beyond the arc. The Bison average 9.4 made three-pointers per game (tied for 61st nationally) and shoot 36.5% from deep, ranking tied for 39th. Offensively, they also hold a slight scoring edge, averaging 80.7 points per game compared to MSU’s 78.9.
Additionally, North Dakota State creates more disruption defensively, averaging 8.3 steals per game—over three more than Michigan State’s 5.1.
That said, the Spartans maintain advantages in key areas that often decide tournament games. They control the boards, share the ball at a high level, and shoot a higher percentage from the free-throw line—an edge that can be crucial in late-game situations.
Prediction:
For North Dakota State to pull off the upset, the path is clear: they must get hot from three—and stay hot.
Michigan State has shown a tendency to start slow, occasionally digging early holes that force them to play from behind. If the Bison can capitalize on that and pair it with a strong shooting performance from deep—similar to how UCLA found success early against MSU in the Big Ten Tournament—they could put real pressure on the Spartans.
However, that scenario requires near-perfect execution.
Michigan State enters this game with something to prove after back-to-back losses, including an early and disappointing exit in the Big Ten Tournament. Expect a focused and motivated group, especially with veterans like Kohler and Cooper playing in their final NCAA Tournament. The urgency to make a deep run—and potentially reach a Final Four—should be evident from the opening tip.
In the end, Michigan State’s physicality, rebounding advantage, and experience should be too much to overcome.
Final Score Prediction:
Michigan State – 80
North Dakota State – 68