Top-ranked Michigan State faces Toledo. Discover game details, historical matchups, betting odds, and expert predictions for this exciting contest.
WHO: No. 9 Michigan State Spartans (9–1, 2–0 B1G) vs. Toledo Rockets (5–5, 0–0 MAC)
WHERE: Jack Breslin Center — East Lansing, MI
WHEN: Tuesday, December 16 | 6:30 PM ET
WATCH: Peacock
Michigan State held firm in this week’s updated rankings after earning a hard-fought road win at Penn State. The Spartans escaped Happy Valley with a 76–72 victory, remaining undefeated in Big Ten play.
Tuesday night marks the beginning of the final stretch of Michigan State’s non-conference schedule. As the calendar flips to the new year, the airhorn sounds for Big Ten season. The Spartans will open January with 18 straight conference games, a gauntlet that leads directly into the Big Ten Tournament and beyond.
History
Michigan State and Toledo have met four times since Tom Izzo took over in East Lansing.
The first matchup came during the 1999–2000 season, when MSU dominated Toledo 78–33. Apparently unimpressed with scoring just 33 points, the Rockets responded a few seasons later with one of the more shocking results of the Izzo era—upsetting No. 14 Michigan State during the 2002–03 season.
Since then, the Spartans have taken control of the series, winning the last two meetings. The most recent matchup came in the 2021–22 season, a comfortable 81–68 MSU victory.
Odds
- Vegas Line: Michigan State -24.5
- Over/Under: 151.5
- Team Totals:
- Michigan State: 87.5
- Toledo: 63.5
- 1st Half Total: 71.5
Vegas projects a lopsided night in East Lansing, effectively calling for an 87–63 Spartan win with a slight lean to the under.
Michigan State Outlook
Michigan State’s lone loss this season came at home against No. 4 Duke (66–60) on Dec. 6. Outside of that setback, the Spartans have stacked up marquee wins over No. 12 Kentucky, No. 14 Arkansas, and No. 18 North Carolina.
MSU currently sits:
- No. 9 in the AP Top 25
- No. 9 in the Coaches Poll
- No. 10 in the NCAA NET
- No. 12 in KenPom
The Spartans rank No. 12 nationally in NET strength of schedule and No. 17 in non-conference SOS. They are one of only six teams in the country with four Quad 1 wins, joining Duke, Gonzaga, Arizona, UConn, and Michigan.
Jaxon Kohler leads the team in scoring at 13.8 points per game while pulling down 9.8 rebounds per contest (2nd in the Big Ten, 20th nationally).
Jeremy Fears Jr. logs a team-high 31.2 minutes per game and leads the entire nation in assists per game (9.8). He also ranks second on the team in scoring 11.2 ppg.
Toledo Preview
Toledo enters the matchup at 5–5 after back-to-back losses to Robert Morris and Oakland, the latter coming by one point.
The Rockets rank first in the MAC and 11th nationally in free-throw percentage (78.7%). Toledo is powered by a balanced attack led by guards Wilson (16.1 ppg) and Leroy Blyden Jr. (14.0 ppg). Blyden also ranks third in the MAC in steals (2.0), fourth in assists (4.9), and fifth in three-point shooting at 46.7%.
Up front, Toledo leans on Sean Craig (13.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Austin Parks (12.0 ppg) to provide scoring and rebounding balance.
Prediction
This game shapes up closely to how Vegas expects it to play out. From a betting perspective, it’s a tricky one—the projected margin feels right on the money.
Still, Michigan State should control this game from start to finish and win comfortably by double digits.
Final Score Prediction:
Michigan State - 80
Toledo - 61
That leans toward the under and taking Toledo’s team total under. The Spartans should cruise, but as always, ranked teams carry a target—and opponents tend to throw their best punch.