A high-stakes Big Ten showdown: 13th-ranked Michigan State clashes with 8th-ranked Purdue. Both teams battle for crucial conference seeding and NCAA Tournament positioning.
WHO: No. 13 Michigan State Spartans (22-5, 12-4) vs. No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers (22-5, 12-4)
WHERE: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
WHEN: Thursday, February 26th, 8 PM EST
WATCH: Peacock
"A hero is an ordinary individual who finds the strength to persevere and endure in spite of overwhelming obstacles." — Christopher Reeve
The Spartans will be looking for a hero come Thursday night as they kick off a two-game trip to Indiana. First up: a trip to Mackey Arena to face the always battle-ready Purdue Boilermakers, led by head coach Matt Painter. Purdue currently sits eighth in the nation and is tied with the Spartans in Big Ten play. Both teams are fighting for a top-four seed in the conference—the prize being three bye rounds in the Big Ten Tournament.
This game has all the makings of an epic battle between two juggernauts in the college basketball world. Both squads are vying not only for better Big Ten seeding but also to position their programs as highly as possible in the Big Dance. Though nothing is certain in March Madness, a higher seed is usually a massive help early in the bracket.
Right now, bracketology has the Spartans as a four-seed, while the Boilermakers sit as a two-seed alongside fellow Big Ten rival Illinois. In the Big Ten standings, both teams are 12-4, tying them for third place with Nebraska. With all teams making the Big Ten Tournament this year, the bracket shakes out like this: Teams 15-18 play Tuesday, winners and teams 9-14 play Wednesday, winners and teams 5-8 play Thursday, and then winners plus teams 1-4 play Friday, with semifinals Saturday and the championship Sunday. With that in mind, both the Spartans and Boilermakers are locked in a fierce battle for one of those coveted top-four seeds.
Michigan State and Purdue will be the only Big Ten game on Thursday, so it will draw all Big Ten eyes—and beyond. This matchup ranks third in Andy Katz's top ten games of the week.
Purdue comes into the game averaging 82.9 points per game, tied for 48th in the nation in scoring. They rank 15th nationally in field goal percentage (50.2% on the year) and tied for 18th in three-point percentage (38% from deep). This exemplifies how smart Purdue is when it comes to shooting the ball—they pride themselves on taking the right shot, and it's normally gift-wrapped for them by a pass from Braden Smith, the nation's second-best assist getter (behind Michigan State's Jeremy Fears).
The Spartans' scoring comes more from inside, but with Carson Cooper's explosion onto the 15-foot jumper scene, they're starting to stretch the floor a bit more. That, combined with freshman Jordan Scott's emergence as a starter and shooter, has the Spartans trying to regain their footing at the exact Tom Izzo time. Still, Michigan State comes in averaging 78.4 points per game (tied for 126th nationally), shooting 46.6% from the field (tied for 105th), and 35.2% from three (tied for 118th).
The Spartans hold a strong edge on the boards, ranking tied for fourth nationally with 38.3 rebounds per game and tied for 22nd with 11.4 offensive rebounds per game. Purdue, on the other hand, averages 34.1 rebounds per game (tied for 77th) and 10.1 offensive rebounds (tied for 96th).
But both teams flourish when it comes to passing the ball. If you're a fan of Steve Nash, John Stockton, and Magic Johnson, then you're in for a treat between Michigan State's Jeremy Fears and Purdue's Braden Smith. The two respectively sit one and two atop the assists leaderboard. Fears holds the top spot, averaging 9.2 assists per game as he eyes the record for most assists in a single season in Big Ten history—a mark held by Smith, who ranks second in the league at 8.7 assists per game and set the record last season. Both are well above the third-place leader, Texas Tech's Christian Anderson (7.7 APG). As a team, Purdue holds the edge in passing, averaging 19.7 assists per game (third in the nation), while the Spartans are close behind at 18.6 APG (tied for ninth).
The Spartans head into the game after moving up two spots in the AP Poll and winning their last two against UCLA and Ohio State. But their road woes are no joke. They've dropped their last two road games against unranked teams (Minnesota and Wisconsin). Before that, they escaped a narrow road win at Rutgers, needing a last-second hail-mary three from Divine Ugochukwu to force overtime (he hit it, and they won)—but they were one shot away from losing their last three road games. Even before the West Coast trip (where they had good wins), the Spartans struggled on the road, losing to Nebraska and beating Penn State by a measly four points. Overall, they're 4-3 on the road, with two of those four wins looking shaky against lower-tier teams. This is a true test and wake-up call for Michigan State—since no games will be played at the Breslin Center during the tournaments, they need to figure out how to win without the Izzone sooner rather than later.
Prediction:
I want to call this the coming-out party for Michigan State. Sadly, we're still a couple days away from Izzo's month. The Spartans will have their hands full doing everything they can to stop a well-disciplined Purdue team that's coming off a get-right game, defeating Indiana by nearly 30 points. I do believe the Spartans can shock the country and take another top-ten win. For that to happen they'll need to shoot hot from the get-go—something not seen most of the time from this Michigan State team. If they can feel a sense of urgency early and escape the dreaded first-half lull, there's a real chance the Spartans eke this one out late. Yet if I was a betting man, I wouldn't put my money on it.
Michigan State - 62
Purdue - 66