Can Spartans maintain explosive offense against struggling Cardinals? Louisville defied odds, but MSU's improved shooting and depth pose a major threat.
WHO: No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 6 Louisville Cardinals
WHAT: Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament – Round of 32
WHERE: KeyBank Center – Buffalo, NY
WHEN: Saturday, March 21st, 2:45 PM EST
WATCH: CBS
Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans took care of business Thursday afternoon with a decisive win over North Dakota State in the Round of 64.
Just above them in the bracket, No. 6 Louisville faced No. 11 South Florida in what many labeled a trendy upset pick. Louisville entered the game without their best player, Mikel Brown Jr., and there was additional emotional fuel on the South Florida side, as their head coach had his father in attendance for the first time in his head coaching career. Many believed Louisville—who had already struggled this season even with Brown in the lineup—would fall victim to a first-round upset.
However, despite the odds and public sentiment, Louisville managed to build a lead and hold on through the final moments to advance.
Now, No. 3 Michigan State will face No. 6 Louisville on Saturday afternoon at approximately 2:45 PM EST.
Michigan State enters the matchup as 4.5-point favorites and looked poised for a deep run based on their performance in the Round of 64. The Spartans shot an impressive 50% from three-point range, going 10-for-20—typically the weakest part of their game. If they can sustain that level of shooting from beyond the arc, there’s no telling how far this team can go.
The improved shooting was largely a result of unselfish, team-first basketball. Michigan State finished with 26 assists, setting a program record for most assists in an NCAA Tournament game. That ball movement created better looks, and ultimately, more shots fell.
Louisville didn’t look great but didn't look horrible in their win. Even without Brown, the Cardinals shot 52% from three-point range (13-for-25) and edged South Florida on the glass, 41-37. But outside of that, it’s honestly surprising Louisville came out on top.
South Florida outperformed Louisville in several key areas. USF dominated the offensive boards (17-11), tripled Louisville in steals (15-5), and took far better care of the basketball, committing just nine turnovers compared to Louisville’s 22. They also outscored the Cardinals in the paint, 44-30. Still, despite all of that, Louisville found a way to advance—and that’s what matters in March.
When comparing the two teams, Michigan State holds the advantage in most categories, including being the healthier squad. So why aren’t the Spartans widely projected to reach the Final Four? Part of it is the gauntlet of a bracket they’re in, but another concern has been their inconsistency scoring the basketball.
That wasn’t an issue in the first round, as MSU put up 92 points. The key now is maintaining that aggressive, confident mindset as the competition stiffens.
Looking at season-long numbers, Louisville has been the more consistent scoring team. The Cardinals rank 20th in the nation, averaging 84.7 points per game, compared to Michigan State’s 79.3 (95th nationally). However, it’s worth noting those numbers include games with Mikel Brown Jr.
Louisville also averages 11.6 made three-pointers per game—good for fifth in the nation—while Michigan State averages just 7.7 (183rd). If the Cardinals get hot early, they could build a quick lead similar to what UCLA did to MSU in the Big Ten Tournament.
Still, if Michigan State can generate consistent offense, they should be in control. The Spartans hold advantages in free throw shooting, turnovers, and rebounding—particularly on the offensive glass—as well as assists.
Prediction:
This game feels like it’s destined to come down to the wire. Regardless of whether Mikel Brown Jr. was playing or not, this matchup has all the makings of an instant classic.
Expect Louisville to let it fly from deep early and often. Michigan State will need strong performances from their bigs, Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, to control the boards. Jeremy Fears Jr. and the rest of the Spartans did an excellent job moving the ball on Thursday, and that will need to continue to create open looks.
For Michigan State, the key is a strong start. They must keep the game tight in the first half. If MSU finds themselves down by 10 or more at halftime—something that’s happened a bit too often—it could spell trouble. But if they can stay within single digits or take a lead into the break, that tilts the game in their favor.
This team feels different. They look hungrier than any Michigan State squad since Cassius Winston led the program. There’s an “it” factor with this group that suggests a deep tournament run is within reach. It’s also been five years since Tom Izzo last made the Final Four—the longest drought of his tenure.
That could change this year.
Michigan State – 80
Louisville – 75