Top-seeded Michigan State enjoys a first-round bye. Who will they face as the chase for the Big Ten title intensifies?
Tonight, seven teams will begin the quest for a Big Ten Tournament title as the first round of the playoffs kicks off. While six of those teams will battle it out on the ice, one team’s postseason journey begins from the comfort of home.
That team is Michigan State.
The Spartans earned the No. 1 seed in the tournament after a grueling regular season. That accomplishment allows Michigan State to sit back and watch from afar during the first round while the rest of the conference fights to stay alive.
The Big Ten Tournament is structured as follows:
Quarterfinals — Wednesday
No. 5 Ohio State at No. 4 Wisconsin
No. 6 Minnesota at No. 3 Penn State
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 2 Michigan
Semifinals — Saturday
Lowest remaining seed at No. 1 Michigan State
Second-lowest remaining seed at second-highest remaining seed
Final — March 21
At higher remaining seed
Because of the reseeding format, the Spartans won’t know exactly who their opponent will be on Saturday. Michigan State will face the lowest remaining seed that advances from Wednesday’s games, meaning the opponent could realistically be one of four different teams.
The first matchup of the night features Michigan hosting Notre Dame. The Wolverines handled the Fighting Irish four out of four times this season, and Notre Dame will likely need something close to a miracle to pull off the upset.
However, it might be a little more doable than many expect.
In the two teams’ first series, Michigan won both games, but neither victory came easily. The second game even went to overtime tied at 1–1 before the Wolverines finally broke through in the extra period. That game alone showed the Fighting Irish can compete with this Michigan team when things fall their way.
For Spartan fans hoping for the easiest path to the championship, the rooting interest here is clear. Michigan State dominated Notre Dame this season, outscoring the Fighting Irish 19–6 across four games, resulting in four MSU victories.
The next game features Minnesota traveling to Penn State. The Nittany Lions will host and are widely considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament, which ultimately leads to the Frozen Four.
Still, this matchup is far from a cakewalk.
Minnesota is playing scrappy hockey right now and enters the game with momentum after picking up wins against both Michigan State and Michigan in its last two series. In the first series between Minnesota and Penn State earlier this year, the teams split the games, with each team scoring a total of four goals in the series. When they met again later in the season, Penn State found another gear and won both games by three goals.
Even so, this matchup could be closer than it appears.
Michigan State swept Penn State in the regular season, but two of those four games required overtime. The Spartans went 3–1 against Minnesota this season, with the lone loss coming in the final game of the regular season. However, that game came with some context: Trey Augustine did not start, and Michigan State had already locked up the No. 1 seed. That loss should probably be taken with a grain of salt.
Finally, the most intriguing game of the first round features Wisconsin hosting Ohio State.
Wisconsin is very close to being a lock for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, but an early exit from the Big Ten Tournament could push the Badgers dangerously close to the bubble. On the other side, Ohio State sits outside that bubble entirely and will likely need to make serious noise in the conference tournament to earn a chance at the national tournament.
These two teams have been evenly matched all season. They split their four regular-season meetings, with each team taking two wins. Ohio State slightly outscored Wisconsin 15–13 across those games.
The most likely scenario is that the top two seeds win the first two games, meaning the winner of Wisconsin vs. Ohio State will likely determine Michigan State’s semifinal opponent.
Michigan State had mixed results against Wisconsin this year. The Badgers swept the Spartans in East Lansing, but Michigan State returned the favor later by sweeping Wisconsin in Madison.
Wisconsin has experienced a roller-coaster season, but of the four potential opponents, the Badgers might present the toughest challenge for Michigan State.
Ohio State, however, has also proven it can play the Spartans tough. The Buckeyes and Spartans split their regular-season series, with each team earning two wins. The final game of that series went an incredible 13 shootout rounds before Michigan State finally claimed victory.
In other words, whichever team wins that matchup will arrive in East Lansing believing it can beat the Spartans. That kind of confidence can bring serious momentum into Munn Ice Arena on Saturday.
Which is exactly why many Michigan State fans will be wearing their rooting hats extra tight for Notre Dame to pull off the upset against Michigan.
Until then, Spartans fans will be tuned into Big Ten Network Plus tonight, watching the tournament unfold and waiting to see who Michigan State will face this weekend.