A Frozen Four berth awaits as MSU and Wisconsin clash for the fifth time, both teams remarkably even on paper and desperate for the win.
WHO: No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (26-8-2) vs. No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers (22-12-2)
WHAT: NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament Regional Final (Elite Eight)
WHERE: DCU Center in Worcester, Massachusetts
WHEN: Saturday, March 28 at 4:30 p.m. ET
WATCH: ESPN2
With only eight teams remaining in men’s college hockey, the stakes only continue to rise.
By the end of this weekend, the field will be cut in half, and the final four teams will head to Las Vegas, Nevada, for the Frozen Four. From there, it becomes a two-game sprint to a national championship.
One of the eight teams still standing is our beloved Michigan State Spartans.
Michigan State is coming off a nail-biting 2-1 win over UConn on Thursday, thanks in large part to Hobey Baker Award nominee and reigning Big Ten Goaltender of the Year Trey Augustine. Augustine turned away 41 shots — his highest total of the season — to keep UConn at bay and send the Spartans into the regional final.
Now, Michigan State turns its attention to a very familiar opponent.
The Spartans and Badgers will square off Saturday afternoon for the fifth time this season, with a trip to the Frozen Four on the line.
First Four Games Recap
Back in late November — on my birthday, nonetheless — the Spartans traveled west to take on Wisconsin as the No. 1 team in the nation.
At the time, things were looking bright for Michigan State. The Spartans entered the series riding a nine-game winning streak, which included wins over then-No. 1 Boston and then-No. 3 Penn State. Wisconsin had some quality wins of its own, but the Badgers had also dropped two of their previous four games and didn’t appear to be playing at the level many expected.
Yet it was Wisconsin that held serve on home ice and swept the Spartans.
The Badgers took game one 5-4, then followed it up with a 2-1 overtime win in game two.
Fast forward less than two months later to mid-January, and the two teams met again — this time in East Lansing.
This time, revenge was best served cold.
The Spartans responded by sweeping the Badgers, outscoring them 8-4 over the two-game series and regaining their momentum at the right time. Those two wins also helped push Michigan State back into the top two in the nation.
So now, after splitting the first four matchups, the rubber match comes with everything on the line.
Preview
Michigan State and Wisconsin aren’t just even in games won against each other this season — they’re also remarkably similar on paper.
Both teams enter Saturday as top-10 scoring teams in the country, with Wisconsin tied for sixth at 135 goals and Michigan State ninth at 133.
Both teams also rank inside the top 15 nationally in shots, although the Spartans do hold a slight edge there, totaling 1,266 shots this season compared to Wisconsin’s 1,206.
That said, Wisconsin has been a bit more efficient offensively. The Badgers are tied for sixth in the nation in shooting percentage, scoring on 11.2% of their shots, while Michigan State ranks tied for 16th at 10.5%.
Defensively, both teams bring plenty to the table as well.
Wisconsin has allowed just 941 shots on goal this season, which is 130 fewer than Michigan State’s 1,071. However, the Spartans counter with what many would argue is the best goaltender in the nation in Augustine, and that has made a massive difference. Michigan State has allowed 34 fewer goals this season (75) than Wisconsin (109).
Special teams could be where this game is won or lost.
Both squads rank inside the top five nationally on the power play, with Michigan State sitting third at 28.8% and Wisconsin not far behind at 27.3%, tied for fifth.
And yes, special teams always matter in hockey — but they may matter even more in this matchup.
These are also two of the more physical teams in the country, ranking fifth and sixth nationally in penalty minutes. Michigan State enters with 585 PIM, while Wisconsin sits at 504.
That means discipline is going to be absolutely critical.
The Spartans allowed five power plays in the first two periods against UConn on Thursday. If that happens again against Wisconsin, Michigan State may not be as fortunate. Augustine can steal stretches of games, but asking him to survive that kind of onslaught against one of the nation’s best power-play units is a dangerous game.
Wisconsin is tied for fourth in the nation with 35 power-play goals, and the Badgers will have no problem making Michigan State pay if they’re handed too many chances.
Prediction
This game is going to be gritty. Every coach, every player, and every fan understands what’s at stake.
The Frozen Four is just one win away.
There will be scrums, checks, big hits, and all the chaos that comes with do-or-die hockey.
And neither team is going to back down.
Three of the first four meetings between these teams were decided by just one goal, and I’d be surprised if this one is any different.
Michigan State knows it can’t afford to get outshot by 20 again, so I expect the Spartans to come out with a greater emphasis on puck possession and a more aggressive mindset offensively. They’ll need to generate more sustained pressure, take more quality shots, and trust Augustine to once again be the difference-maker.
In a game this tight, I’ll take the better goaltender.
Prediction: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 2