Struggling with injuries and a grueling Big Ten slate, Michigan State needs four wins to snap their postseason drought. We break down the narrowest paths to eligibility.
We are now a month into the college football season, and through the first four weeks, the Michigan State Spartans sit at 2-2 overall and 0-1 in Big Ten play.
The schedule doesn't get any easier now that the Spartans are in the heart of conference play.
Michigan State hasn't reached a bowl game since 2021, and even the simplest bowl appearance this year could provide a much-needed boost for the program. But with the Spartans still searching for their identity and key injuries beginning to pile up on both sides of the ball, can they win enough games to become bowl eligible?
The remaining schedule looks like this:
Oct. 3: at Wisconsin — 12:30 p.m. ET
Oct. 10: Illinois — Time TBA
Oct. 17: Northwestern — Time TBA
Oct. 24: at UCLA — Time TBA
Nov. 7: at Michigan — Time TBA
Nov. 14: Washington — Time TBA
Nov. 20: Oregon — 8 p.m. ET
Nov. 28: at Rutgers — Time TBA
None of these games can be considered easy wins, with Rutgers potentially standing out as the most manageable matchup. The toughest games on the schedule appear to be Oregon, Michigan and Illinois.
Where Can the Wins Come From?
The Spartans need four more victories to become bowl eligible, and the most obvious path could be Rutgers, Northwestern, Washington and UCLA.
But even those games are far from guaranteed, and Michigan State may not be favored in many — if any — of them.
Northwestern was previously one of the games that looked most winnable outside of Rutgers. However, former Spartan Aidan Chiles has helped change that perception. Northwestern just showed it can compete with some of the nation's best by keeping things close against the reigning national champion Indiana Hoosiers on Friday.
Michigan also looks more vulnerable after suffering a walk-off loss to Iowa on Saturday. However, Iowa is a top-15 team in the country, while Michigan State still has plenty to prove. The Wolverines are beatable, and rivalry games can always bring an added level of intensity, but it would still take a major upset for the Spartans to leave Ann Arbor with a win.
Then there is Oregon.
Dante Moore, Oregon's starting quarterback, took a brutal hit, but if he is back on the field by the time the Ducks face Michigan State, that game could be one of the biggest challenges remaining on the schedule.
Illinois may be another opportunity. The Fighting Illini just competed with Ohio State, showing they belong among the better teams in the Big Ten, but they also showed some vulnerabilities that Michigan State could potentially exploit.
The UCLA and Washington Games
UCLA could provide Michigan State with another legitimate opportunity in October.
The Spartans will have to travel across the country to Los Angeles for that matchup, which adds another challenge to an already difficult schedule. Still, UCLA has shown enough inconsistency to make that game one Michigan State could realistically compete in.
Washington, meanwhile, will come to East Lansing.
Playing at home could give the Spartans an advantage in what could be another important opportunity to pick up a conference victory.
The Path to Six Wins
Ultimately, Michigan State faces a brutal stretch to close out the season.
To reach a bowl game, the Spartans need four more wins. That likely means taking care of business against Rutgers while finding a way to pull off several upsets elsewhere on the schedule.
That is a massive challenge for a team still trying to establish what it can be under Pat Fitzgerald.
Michigan State has shown flashes through the first four weeks, but consistency has been difficult to find. Injuries have added another layer of uncertainty, and the Big Ten schedule offers very little room for error.
The Spartans don't necessarily need to run through the conference. They simply need to find four more wins.
But where will those wins come from?
That's the question Michigan State will have to answer over the next two months.
Can the Spartans find a way to reach a bowl game?
