Michigan State at Michigan: Three Best Player Prop Bets

The Michigan State Spartans are heading to Ann Arbor for one of the biggest games of the season, and I'm back with three player prop bets for the rivalry matchup.

Before getting into this week's picks, let's take a look at how things have gone throughout the season.

Season Betting Record:

Overall Record: 15-8

The Spartans let me down by a single point, and the UCLA Bruins let me down by two passing yards.

Ultimately, I hit one of my three favorite bets (under 23.5 first-half total points) but missed out on UCLA's team receiving yards of 200+, as they finished with 198. The Spartans also needed to stay within 17 points, but instead lost by 18.

It's a reminder that betting can be cruel and why you should never start to tilt. Losing happens. Take it on the chin, take a bye week off, and come back better this week.

For the season, I'm still well in the green, but the 1-2 week against UCLA ended my three-week winning streak.

Now the Spartans head to Ann Arbor for a massive rivalry game. Both programs will have first-time head coaches in this matchup, but Michigan State is battling injuries just about everywhere outside of the coaching positions.

Michigan State has ruled out its starting tight end, best defensive lineman, best linebacker, top two cornerbacks, top three running backs and backup quarterback. The Spartans also have their top safety and starting quarterback listed as questionable.

Despite all the adversity, there is still a hungry team ready to prove its worth, especially on the grand stage of the Big House against its biggest rival.

I will preface these picks by saying they are made under the assumption that Alessio Milivojevic will be the starting quarterback for Michigan State after missing the UCLA game and having a bye week to recover. If he ends up sitting again, take the under on everything.

Here are my three favorite player prop bets for Saturday.

Kenneth Williams is in line to get the start at running back this week, with the Spartans' top three running backs all ruled out.

Williams is a speedy running back who can turn any carry into a massive gain.

He has had a few opportunities throughout the season, and his longest rush of the year is 13 yards. However, he has never had a game in which he was highlighted as Michigan State's premier running back, which changes this Saturday.

The Spartans have a good offensive line, and despite Michigan having a very good defense, the Wolverines have been susceptible to the rushing attack, allowing 99 yards per game.

Williams just needs to break one run for 14 or more yards to hit this prop. I believe Pat Fitzgerald will continue to lean on his running game, no matter who is carrying the football.

My Pick: Kenneth Williams Over 13.5 Longest Rush Yards

Michigan State's defense has been pretty good against the run this year, leaning heavily on defensive tackle Ben Roberts to anchor the middle of the defensive line.

Unfortunately for Michigan State, Roberts has already been ruled out for this game.

Hiter has exceeded this rushing total in three of his last five games. In a rivalry game featuring two newer head coaches, along with the possibility of Mother Nature bringing some rain Saturday night, I believe both coaches will lean heavily on the running game.

Tommy Carr has been at quarterback since taking over Michigan's starting job, but he will most likely be handing the ball off more often than not on Saturday.

That should mean plenty of opportunities for Hiter to run against a depleted Spartans defense.

My Pick: Savion Hiter Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

To play into my previous pick, I do not believe Carr is going to have a lights-out performance through the air.

Rivalry games mean more, especially when you're playing against an underdog that has everything to prove.

The Spartans will come out heavy on defense and do everything they can to disrupt Carr.

The freshman quarterback took over in the second half of the Penn State game and led Michigan to a win. He then kept Michigan close against Indiana before losing in overtime, followed by a seven-point win over Rutgers last week.

Carr threw for 266 yards against Rutgers, but that defense is the worst in the league. Michigan scoring only 28 points in that matchup is actually more concerning to me than Carr's passing total is encouraging.

Despite Michigan State's injury-riddled defense, I believe the players stepping into bigger roles will step up and slow down an already underwhelming Michigan offense.

I expect Michigan to lean heavily on its running game, limiting Carr's opportunities through the air.

My Pick: Tommy Carr Under 199.5 Passing Yards

Here are my three favorite player props for this weekend's rivalry matchup:

The rivalry always brings another level of intensity, and with Michigan State dealing with so many injuries, I expect both teams to lean on their running games. Hopefully, these three picks can get us back on track after a frustrating week against UCLA.