Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA: Lock of the Week

Last Week:

Needless to say, my Locks of the Week have been toast this year.

My ultimate doom this season has come in the form of the Lock of the Week, but the real problem stems from always writing my Three Best Bets of the Week article first.

That's where I use my three favorite bets of the week, backing myself into a corner of avoiding repetition and coming up with a fourth bet that has truly been a total dart throw.

The first step is admitting it, and the second is figuring out why. Why am I using my three favorite bets right off the bat and leaving myself in this pickle when it comes to the Lock of the Week?

Sure, I had a good two-week run, but Northwestern could only muster up 24 points last week, ending my little win streak of two weeks, if you even want to call it that. I will.

Now, the next step is righting the wrong. Let's take a good, hard look at this segment. One I deemed good enough to call the Lock of the Week, and one where I've won just three of seven tries. Is it worth reading this and then tailing it? Honestly, probably not.

Yet, through the adversity and turmoil, I will continue to show the resilience and grit mirrored by the nearly identical 2-5 Spartans and come out on top.

This game is a bit hard to read. UCLA is far and away the better team, but with that comes a lot of expectations. On the other end, Michigan State rides a five-game losing streak into a road trip to the West Coast.

Despite the Spartans' last two games being losses by a combined four points, they are still viewed as one of the worst teams in the conference. That leaves little to no expectations and gives Michigan State a sense of having nothing to lose.

Because of that, I like the Spartans to actually stay close in this game. In fact, I picked Michigan State to win in my score prediction article.

I preface the pick with all of that because, if the Spartans are going to win, they will have to stifle the Bruins' Big Ten-leading rushing attack, which averages 231.0 yards per game, and force the ball into the hands of UCLA backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach.

Dieffenbach threw for 264 yards last week against Wisconsin. Michigan State allowed Aidan Chiles to pass for 226 yards last week despite being without its top four cornerbacks. For the second week in a row, all four players will miss the game.

Michigan State will want to force UCLA to throw the ball, and I believe Dieffenbach will do enough through the air to cover my Lock of the Week.

Ty Dieffenbach over 174.5 passing yards (-155)