Michigan State at No. 9 UCLA: Spread and Over/Under Prediction

A big banana split last week. While the game did stay under 48.5 points, a line that actually moved up to 49.5 after last week's article, I also thought Northwestern would win by 10 or more points. Many believed Michigan State's defensive injury woes would be too much for the Spartans to keep the game under the total, but football can be a fickle sport.

In the end, Michigan State nearly had a chance to win the game before a blocked field goal allowed Northwestern to drive down the field and win on a field goal of its own.

This week, the Spartans will head to Pasadena to play the No. 9 UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. UCLA enters the game undefeated, a complete juxtaposition to Michigan State's five-game losing streak.

Despite the brutal losing streak, Michigan State has played very well over the past two games. The Spartans lost by one point in overtime two weeks ago and then suffered the aforementioned three-point loss to Northwestern last week. Combined, MSU has lost by just four points over the past two games.

UCLA comes in with a perfect 6-0 record, but after averaging 45 points per game to start the season, the Bruins have scored just 17 points in each of their last two wins. Two weeks ago, UCLA's starting quarterback suffered a season-ending injury, but the backup has helped lead the Bruins to two victories. He closed out their win over USC two weeks ago before playing the entire game in last week's victory against Wisconsin.

Vegas is leaning heavily toward UCLA, with the expectation that the Bruins' defense and both teams' rushing attacks will keep this game relatively low-scoring.

Vegas Lines:

UCLA enters the game with the fifth-best rushing attack in the Big Ten, which is similar to what Northwestern brought into last week's matchup. That could play into Michigan State's favor.

With MSU missing its top four cornerbacks because of injuries for the second consecutive week, it seems the Spartans would prefer their opponents to lean on the rushing game. That is also how UCLA has been able to win many of its games this season.

Despite missing an abundance of defensive backs over the past couple of weeks, one of Michigan State's best attributes on defense has been its ability to stop the run.

UCLA ranks last in the Big Ten in passing yards per game, and with its backup quarterback starting, the Spartans will gladly accept a rushing attack duel this Saturday.

Michigan State was embarrassed by UCLA at homecoming last season and will look to get as much revenge as possible this weekend.