The Spartans head to Madison facing defensive hurdles and the loss of star playmaker Cam Edwards, while the surging Badgers look to capitalize on home-field momentum.
Last Week:
- Michigan State +5.5 — WRONG
- Under 48.5 — CORRECT
Season Record: 5-2-1
We’re back after another split week, and while the season record remains in the green, it’s time to start building some momentum.
Last week, Michigan State couldn’t keep pace with Nebraska’s offense. The Spartans made several impressive defensive stops that could have kept both the spread and the under in play. Unfortunately, those stops were repeatedly wiped away by yellow flags, allowing Nebraska to extend drives that appeared to be stalled and eventually find the end zone.
Despite the setback, we’re still up on the season and looking to put together a strong stretch of picks.
This week, the Spartans head to Madison, Wisconsin, to take on the Badgers in a matchup that presents some interesting betting opportunities.
Wisconsin enters the contest at 3-1, with its lone loss coming in Week 1 against Notre Dame. The Badgers are riding high after an exciting comeback victory over Penn State, overcoming a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to pull off a stunning upset.
Michigan State, meanwhile, enters at 2-2 after suffering consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Nebraska. The Spartans have struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball, and things aren't getting any easier as they prepare for their first road game in conference play.
From a betting perspective, Michigan State is 2-1-1 against the spread this season, while Wisconsin sits at 3-1. The Badgers have hit the over in three of their four games, whereas the Spartans have gone under in three of their four contests.
Currently, sportsbooks have Wisconsin favored by 10 points, with the over/under set at 43.5.
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin: Over/Under Prediction
When looking at the total, it seems sportsbooks are leaning heavily on Michigan State's offensive struggles continuing.
The Spartans have been inconsistent moving the football all season, and the loss of star playmaker Cam Edwards for the remainder of the year only complicates matters. With Edwards sidelined, Michigan State must lean on its remaining running backs to help generate offense and keep the chains moving.
The numbers paint a concerning picture. Michigan State has scored just 88 points this season, the fewest in the Big Ten, while finding the end zone only nine times.
However, there is another side to this matchup that makes the over intriguing.
Michigan State's defense has been battling injuries and struggling to generate turnovers. Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph leads the Big Ten with five interceptions through four games, presenting an opportunity for the Spartans to create some much-needed chaos.
If Michigan State can force a few mistakes and give its offense favorable field position, the Spartans could contribute more to the scoreboard than their recent performances suggest.
Even without much help from Michigan State, Wisconsin has the offensive potential to do a significant amount of the heavy lifting.
My Prediction: Wisconsin -10 and Over 43.5
I'll be praying for a Spartans upset, but it's difficult to feel confident in this team's ability to pull one off right now.
Michigan State has looked lackluster offensively and undisciplined on both sides of the football. The penalties against Nebraska were particularly frustrating, and the Spartans cannot afford to make those same mistakes against a Wisconsin team coming off a massive confidence-boosting victory.
That said, I don't love Wisconsin laying 10 points. If anything, I would feel more comfortable with the Badgers at -7, giving Michigan State a little more breathing room and creating the possibility of a push.
The over, however, is where I see the most value.
A total of 43.5 points feels low, especially with Wisconsin potentially capable of putting up 30 points on its own. If Michigan State can manage just 14 points, the over should be in excellent shape.
The Spartans don't need to suddenly become an offensive powerhouse. They simply need to do enough to complement what Wisconsin brings to the table.
Final Picks:
- Wisconsin -10
- Over 43.5 points
Let's hope the Spartans give us something to celebrate on Saturday, even if it means sweating out these picks along the way.
