In just 24 hours, the Spartans and Wolverines will face off for the 118th time.

This rivalry spans more than a century and has featured wild finishes, shocking upsets, and just about everything you can pull out of a paper bag. The two teams will square off at 7:30 PM EST in East Lansing for the nine-foot Paul Bunyan Trophy, which has called Ann Arbor home for the past three years.

As both teams wrap up walkthroughs, finalize game plans, and prep for one of the most emotional games of the season, we’ll look through our trusty sportsbook and highlight our three favorite bets for this matchup.

The Betting Landscape

As of Friday afternoon, Michigan is a heavy favorite at -700, while Michigan State sits at +450 on the moneyline. The Wolverines opened the week as -12.5 point favorites, but that line has grown to -14.5. The total points line is 47.5, with even odds on both sides.

The last time these teams met in East Lansing, Michigan covered the spread by themselves, winning 49–0. But this isn’t Mel Tucker’s MSU team — this is Jonathan Smith’s Spartans, and it’s his first home matchup against Michigan alongside young QB Aidan Chiles.

My Three-Leg Parlay

1. Game Total — Over 47.5 Points

In the last three years, this rivalry has hit 48+ points once (that 49–0 game). But in the last two games in East Lansing, the over has hit — and four of the last six overall have gone over 48 points.

Different rosters, different coaches, but the same intensity. Rivalry games tend to bring chaos — and chaos means points.

MSU’s defense has struggled mightily, allowing opponents to move the ball at will. Michigan’s offense should have no problem scoring. On the flip side, if Michigan State wants any shot at staying competitive, Chiles and WR Nick Marsh will need to connect early and often, with Chiles using his legs to keep drives alive.

I expect Michigan to pull away late and push this one over 47.5.

2. Michigan Team Total — Over 31.5 Points

If the over is going to hit, it starts with Michigan.

The Wolverines’ offense averages 28.7 points per game, and they’re facing a Spartans defense that’s giving up 32.7 per game — against opponents like Boston College, UCLA, Nebraska, and USC. Those teams combined for 161 total points against MSU.

Michigan should find its rhythm after the first few drives, regardless of the raucous East Lansing crowd. Once they settle in, I expect steady drives, long touchdowns, and a statement game from Sherrone Moore’s offense.

Give me Michigan Over 31.5 team points all day.

3. Bryce Underwood — Over 20 Rushing Yards

Freshman phenom Bryce Underwood hasn’t used his legs much this season, but that could change Saturday.

He’s hit 20+ rushing yards just once in his last three games — 25 vs Washington — but he’s shown solid pocket awareness and athleticism when needed. Against an MSU defense that’s likely to bring pressure and sell out on early-down runs, I expect Underwood to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet.

If Michigan wants to stay aggressive and build playoff momentum, Moore will want to showcase Underwood’s full dual-threat ability. At even money, this prop feels like easy value.

Final Pick

✅ Game Total: Over 47.5 Points ✅ Michigan Team Total: Over 31.5 Points ✅ Bryce Underwood: 20+ Rushing Yards

Follow along — let’s turn $10 into $30 this weekend.