Nebraska at Michigan State Score Prediction

Week One: Toledo at Michigan State

Week Two: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State

Week Three: Michigan State at Notre Dame

Last week, I wanted to do my best at manifesting a miraculous upset. The Spartans needed everything and then some, and I tried to be the “and then some” — but unfortunately, I came up short.

This week, we get back to trying to get as close as possible.

Michigan State is set to host the 3-0 Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday night, with kickoff scheduled for 5 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

The Spartans enter at 2-1 after suffering their first loss of the season at the hands of No. 3 Notre Dame. Now, Michigan State will look to bounce back against a very good Nebraska team as Big Ten play gets underway.

Nebraska was projected to win more games than Michigan State entering the season, but after watching both teams through the first three weeks, this matchup looks like it could be a brawl.

The offensive numbers for both teams were relatively close to begin the season before Michigan State ran into the buzzsaw that was the Notre Dame defense. Not only were the teams producing at similar levels, but they were doing it in very similar ways.

Heading into Week Three, Cam Edwards led the Big Ten in rushing yards. After facing Notre Dame's stifling defense, however, Edwards now sits sixth in the conference with 288 rushing yards on the season.

Nebraska's leading rusher, Jamal Rule, ranks third in the Big Ten with 329 rushing yards.

The biggest difference between the two backs comes in efficiency.

Rule has 41 more rushing yards than Edwards despite carrying the ball 22 fewer times. His 8.66 yards per carry ranks third in the Big Ten, while Edwards is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

That gives Nebraska a clear advantage when it comes to rushing efficiency, although Michigan State will be hoping Edwards can return to the form he showed during the first two weeks of the season.

The passing numbers between Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and Nebraska quarterback Anthony Colandrea are also fairly close, with two major categories creating a significant difference.

Entering Week Four, Colandrea ranks 11th in the Big Ten with 692 passing yards while averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. Milivojevic ranks 14th with 540 passing yards and is averaging 7.6 yards per attempt.

The major difference comes in touchdowns and sacks.

Colandrea has thrown eight touchdown passes through the first three games, tying him for fifth in the Big Ten. Milivojevic has struggled to find the end zone through the air, although that has not entirely been his fault.

The Spartans have had multiple opportunities slip away, including two wide-open touchdown passes that were dropped in the end zone. The most recent came from Kenneth Williams and drew plenty of attention.

At the same time, it becomes increasingly difficult for Milivojevic to make plays downfield when he does not have enough time to make them.

Michigan State's offensive line struggled mightily against Notre Dame, allowing Milivojevic to be sacked nine times through three games. Colandrea, meanwhile, has been sacked just three times this season.

That six-sack difference could become one of the biggest factors in Saturday's game.

Defensively, these two teams stack up relatively closely. Michigan State has also faced the more difficult schedule to this point, which could give the Spartans an advantage despite allowing nearly twice as many points as Nebraska this season, 54-28.

I've already explained why I like the under in this matchup, and I also like Michigan State to cover the +5.5 points.

After getting burned by my attempt to manifest an upset last week, I'm going with a much more realistic prediction this time around.

My Prediction:

- Michigan State - 23

- Nebraska - 21