If AP Poll rankings dictated the bracket, Michigan State solidifies its 3-seed. Discover who bumps Illinois and reshapes the lower lines.
Is there anything less meaningful than the AP Poll dropping its Top 25 rankings once the NCAA Tournament is already underway?
It's like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, closing the barn door after the horse has bolted, or calling a timeout when the clock has already hit zero. Yet, year after year, the poll still comes out. So, as always, I like to play the "what if" game: How would the seeds shake out if the bracket were built solely on the latest AP Poll?
Unsurprisingly, the No. 1 seeds would stay exactly the same: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida, in that order. These are the powerhouses most bracket-fillers will pick to win their regions—and plenty will have one (or more) of these four hoisting the trophy in the end.
It's rare for all four No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four—we saw it happen last year—and it feels like we're heading toward another top-heavy showdown this time around.
That said, the teams best positioned to challenge those top seeds are the No. 2s. And here, the Selection Committee nailed it according to the AP Poll. Houston, Iowa State, UConn, and Purdue sit at Nos. 5–8 in the rankings and all earned No. 2 seeds in the actual bracket.
Things get more interesting at the No. 3 line, which continues to back up the point I've been making in every article since Sunday night: St. John's got a surprisingly low seed compared to how the nation views them.
The official 3-seeds are Michigan State, Illinois, Gonzaga, and Virginia. But per the AP Poll, the lineup would be nearly identical—except Illinois would swap out for St. John's. That would slide St. John's into the South Region, facing Penn alongside Florida and Houston.
At No. 4, the Committee went with Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Alabama. The poll would keep only Nebraska and Arkansas there. Kansas and Alabama would drop to the 5-seed line, while Illinois would fall back to a 4-seed (perhaps facing Cal Baptist in the East Region), and Vanderbilt would jump to a 4-seed (maybe taking on Hofstra in the Midwest).
Speaking of the 5-seeds—the current ones are St. John's, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, and Texas Tech—the shake-up continues. With St. John's already moving to a 3 and Vanderbilt to a 4, Wisconsin and Texas Tech would hold steady on the 5 line. The newcomers? Kansas and Alabama, the two fallen 4-seeds.
The 6-seeds in the bracket are Louisville, North Carolina, BYU, and Tennessee. The AP Poll agrees on three of them—Louisville, North Carolina, and Tennessee—but BYU (with just 62 votes) would fall to the 7 line. Replacing them? Saint Mary's.
That brings us to the 7-seeds: UCLA, Saint Mary's, Kentucky, and Miami (FL). We already know Saint Mary's would climb to the 6 line. The poll keeps Miami (FL) (ranked 25th) and UCLA, while the replacements for Saint Mary's would come from the also-receiving-votes crowd: Miami (OH) (100 votes) and BYU (62 votes).
Diving into the votes for teams outside the Top 25:
- The 8-seeds would be Utah State, TCU, VCU, and High Point.
- The 9-seeds: Clemson, Ohio State, Kentucky, and Saint Louis.
- The 10-seeds: Akron, Santa Clara, and McNeese State (no fourth team, as no other squads picked up AP votes).
Of course, there's no perfect way to seed a field this deep—someone always feels slighted. I genuinely love what the Committee does each year, and I think they got it mostly right this time, with just a few quibbles (mainly St. John's seeding standing out as the big one).
Still, for fun, imagining a bracket built purely on the AP Poll makes for an intriguing alternate universe. Michigan State holds firm as a 3-seed either way, which feels like a fair reflection of their strong season. Who knows—maybe in this version, the upsets play out even wilder.