Spartans vs Bruins: 3 Picks I’m Riding Tonight

The Spartans are coming back home. A place where they’ve lost only two games this season — both to top-three ranked teams in Duke Blue Devils and Michigan Wolverines.

Heading back to East Lansing after a devastating, embarrassing, and downright sickening loss to Wisconsin on Friday, the roller coaster that has been the Izzo-led Spartans this year looks to climb back up from its sharp drop tonight against UCLA.

The Bruins are on the back end of a Midwest trip after losing to Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday by 30 points. Now, they look to extract some revenge on the state of Michigan as they face off against the Spartans at the Breslin Center.

Both teams are coming off losses, trying their best to keep the momentum of their seasons alive as the clock ticks closer to March.

Here are three bets that I believe are bound to hit.

Both teams come in averaging on the lower end of scoring, so it’s no surprise Vegas believes this game will total under 140 points. However, the Spartans may only average 78.8 points per game overall, but at the Breslin Center this year they average 80.9. If the Spartans hit that average, you’re only asking for 59 points from UCLA.

The Bruins enter the game averaging 77.9 points per game and 69.9 on the road.

Michigan State has a very strong defense that is capable of showing up at any time. However, they’ve struggled lately — especially closing out on opposing three-point shooters. They’ve allowed teams to start hot and stay hot. UCLA only averages 7.6 threes per game, but they shoot 38.1% from deep — tied for 17th best in the nation.

If the Bruins decide to expose Michigan State’s perimeter defense and take a few more threes than usual — and those shots fall — the over could have a strong chance of hitting midway through the second half.

I know — I’m the biggest Michigan State diehard telling you to take the points with UCLA. The irony is not lost on me.

But what this should tell you is that this is coming from someone who has watched every possible minute of every Spartan game this season.

The Spartans are good at home, and the Bruins are on a Midwest trip that just saw them lose by 30. Conversely, UCLA has been in the state for at least four days. They’re playing solid basketball with wins over Ohio State and Purdue in their last seven games, and outside of Michigan, their only recent loss was a double-overtime, one-point defeat to Indiana.

Michigan State, on the other hand, is faltering. Most of the ugly performances have come on the road, but the injury to Ugochukwu is still something the team is figuring out.

As a fan, I truly hope this is a get-right game and the Spartans handle business from tip to finish. But I have my doubts — and I personally predicted a three-point Michigan State win.

For the final leg, we head into player props.

I don’t usually dabble much in player props, so if you stop here and just take the total and spread, I wouldn’t blame you. That alone is better than a double-up and a good way to earn yourself a couple extra drinks.

Still, if you’re like me and want to see why I’d risk adding a college basketball prop to this parlay, I applaud you.

Fears comes into the game averaging 15.1 points per game — a team lead for Michigan State. He’s hit this line in four of his last six games and nine of his last 13.

He finished with 14 points against Wisconsin — just one shy — in a game where the Spartans had no offensive rhythm. He also had 14 against Oregon back in January and 14 against Nebraska in a game where Michigan State scored only 56 total points.

Now the Spartans are back home, where they’re more comfortable offensively.

I’m not afraid of a blowout here — I expect this to be tight. That should force Fears into making clutch baskets down the stretch, something the Spartans have relied on lately. Expect him to draw big free throws late and keep Michigan State within striking distance.

Yes, he’s missed this mark in two of the last three games. That doesn’t scare me. If anything, it makes the odds even more enticing.

Total Parlay: +380 $25 to win $95.09