Washington at Michigan State: Spread and Over/Under Prediction

Last Game:

Overall Record: 9-8-1

A nice, clean sweep last week gets me back into the green on the season. I tried to tell you the Spartans were going to create chaos in a rivalry game against a lackluster Michigan team. That's exactly what was portrayed on the field.

Not only did Michigan State cover the spread, but it outright dominated the Wolverines and won the game, 15-6. With a total of just 21 points, the game finished well below the Vegas total that I told you to stay under.

Now, Michigan State rides its momentum back to Spartan Stadium to play host to the Washington Huskies, who are traveling across the country after losing a heartbreaker to Penn State last week as the Nittany Lions spoiled their homecoming.

Both teams still have bowl hopes alive.

Washington enters the game 5-4 overall and 2-4 in conference play, needing just one more win to become bowl eligible. It's a much harder hill to climb for Michigan State, which needs to win all three remaining games to clinch bowl eligibility.

Both teams understand the importance of this game as the season dwindles down. Just like that, a fast and furious season will come to a close, and making the most of these final three games cannot be understated.

The coaches know it and are echoing that message to their players, hoping they not only take in these final games but seize the day and find a way to close out the season with wins.

Football is a fickle sport, and after emotional victories, the following week can seem like it sneaks up on you. Maybe you're not as prepared as you should be. This worries me more for the Spartans. They got their first conference win in a rivalry game and left it all on the field. Unfortunately, they'll need to pick it all back up and repeat that effort this week against a Washington team hungry to get back on the winning side of things.

This isn't necessarily a so-called "trap game," but it's similar in that regard for Michigan State. The Spartans are going to have to dig even deeper than they just did to find the will to win against a team that isn't right down the road, where mutual hatred can force your body to dig deep. This time, the Spartans will have to find that motivation on their own.

Luckily, the Huskies are also traveling across the country after getting their hearts stepped on last week. They may be deflated, too, and find it difficult to dig deep to find the desire to win.

This game is going to be a dogfight. I expect a low-scoring affair despite Washington's ability to pass the ball almost at will against just about any team. Michigan State's defense has shown that it's up to the task, including slowing down a prolific passing quarterback.

Vegas has Washington as a 3.5-point road favorite, with the over/under set at 43.5. The Spartans average the fewest points per game in the Big Ten (19.3), but their offense has been turning a corner lately.

Spread: Washington -3.5

Over/Under: Under 43.5

I would actually like the spread more at Washington -2.5, or even -3.0 for a push opportunity. You might want to buy down to that number.

As much as I want the Spartans to salvage their season, it just seems unlikely. They got their win against Michigan and will probably win their final game against Rutgers, and that will be all the conference wins the Spartans manage this season.

Michigan State's offense just won't be able to move the ball, even if it gets some of its starters back from injury. I expect the final score to come in well below the Vegas total, making the under my favorite play of the game.