Two college basketball titans clash under the D.C. lights. Michigan's depth faces Duke's star power in a must-see duel for national supremacy.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The eyes of the college basketball world descend upon Capital One Arena tonight for what is, without hyperbole, the most anticipated regular-season matchup of the 2025–26 campaign. In a rare late-February non-conference treat, the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (25-1) take on the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils (24-2) in the "Duel in the District."
This isn’t just a battle for a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament; it’s a clash of philosophies. On one side, you have Dusty May’s Michigan squad—a team that has weaponized depth and defensive length to steamroll the Big Ten. On the other, Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils, led by a generational talent in Cameron Boozer, look to prove that their star-heavy roster is the true national title favorite.
The Matchup: By the Numbers
Both teams enter tonight’s contest as the only two programs in the country ranked in the top seven for both offensive and defensive efficiency (KenPom).
Team
Record
PPG
FG%
Key Metric
Michigan
25-1
90.6
49.2%
+21.8 Scoring Margin
Duke
24-3
83.0
47.8%
2nd Nationally in Def. Eff.
Michigan is riding an 11-game winning streak, most recently dismantling Purdue 91-80 in West Lafayette. Duke, meanwhile, has been nearly perfect since Thanksgiving, with their only recent blemish being a three-point heartbreaker at North Carolina.
Players to Watch
Michigan: The "Three-Headed Monster"
The Wolverines' success is built on a frontcourt rotation that looks more like an NBA developmental squad.
Yaxel Lendeborg (F): The heartbeat of the team. Averaging 14.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG, Lendeborg is a versatile defender who can switch onto guards or bang in the post.
Aday Mara (C): At 7'3", the Spaniard is a human eraser. He ranks third nationally with 2.7 blocks per game and will be the primary obstacle for Duke's interior offense.
Elliot Cadeau (G): The engine. The junior playmaker (10.1 PPG, 5.5 APG) is coming off a masterclass performance against Purdue and will need to navigate Duke’s elite perimeter pressure.
Duke: The Boozer Era
Cameron Boozer (F): The clear frontrunner for National Player of the Year. Boozer is averaging a staggering 22.8 PPG and 10.0 RPG. He is the first player this century to record at least 14 points and 5 rebounds in every single game of a season.
Isaiah Evans (G/F): A lethal secondary scorer (14.7 PPG) who has a knack for hitting "dagger" threes. His ability to space the floor is vital to keeping Michigan’s shot-blockers out of the paint.
Cayden Boozer (G): The steady hand at the point. His matchup with Cadeau will determine which team controls the tempo of the game.
The X-Factor: The "Sixth Man" vs. The "Freshmen"
Michigan’s Trey McKenney has been arguably the best bench player in the country, providing an instant 12-15 points per game. If Duke’s freshmen, like Nikolas Khamenia, can’t match Michigan’s second-unit production, the Wolverines could pull away in the middle of the second half.
The Prediction
Expect a heavyweight fight. Duke has the best individual player on the floor in Boozer, but Michigan possesses a level of synchronization and "positionless" depth that is incredibly difficult to plan for on a neutral court.
The Wolverines’ ability to rotate fresh, elite rim protectors against Boozer will eventually take its toll. In a game that will feel like an Elite Eight preview, look for Michigan to use a late 8-0 run fueled by their defense to seal the victory in front of a sellout D.C. crowd.
Final Score Prediction: Michigan 78, Duke 73