Michigan vs. Michigan State: Over/Under Predictions
Nov 4, 2026 8:19 PM

Michigan enters its rivalry matchup against Michigan State looking to build on its victory over Rutgers. Here are five Over/Under predictions involving Tommy Carr, the Wolverines' struggling rushing attack and a defense looking to dominate the Spartans.

With Michigan coming off a 28-21 win over Rutgers, Tommy Carr firmly established as the starting quarterback and Michigan State struggling on both sides of the football, there are plenty of interesting angles for this week's Over/Under article.

Michigan State ranks No. 122 in rushing offense, No. 117 in passing offense, No. 86 in rushing defense and No. 50 in passing defense. Those numbers create some intriguing possibilities.

1. Tommy Carr Passing Yards — 224.5

Prediction: UNDER

Carr is coming off his best performance as Michigan's starting quarterback, and Kyle Whittingham has made it clear that the freshman will remain under center moving forward. Michigan State ranks No. 50 nationally against the pass, making this a reasonable opportunity for Carr to build on his momentum, but 225 passing yards still feels a little steep, especially knowing that U-M wants to run the ball in the worst kind of way, particularly in this rivalry matchup. I do think Carr will be good through the air, and another efficient performance could help Michigan's offense take another step forward, but I'll say under by just a bit.

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2. Jordan Marshall Rushing Yards — 74.5

Prediction: UNDER

Marshall's lack of production remains one of Michigan's biggest mysteries. Whittingham recently acknowledged that the running back is healthy but hasn't been able to find his rhythm. Michigan State ranks No. 86 nationally against the run, so opportunities should be available, but Marshall hasn't demonstrated enough consistency to confidently predict a breakout performance. Freshman Savion Hiter was the bell cow last week and I think that'll happen again. 

3. Savion Hiter Rushing Attempts — 11.5

Prediction: OVER

With Marshall struggling to find consistent production, Hiter has already earned additional opportunities and that feels like the move this week. The talented freshman brings explosiveness to the rushing attack, and Michigan State's vulnerable run defense should provide chances to make plays. Double-digit carries seem realistic, especially if Michigan establishes an early lead.

4. Michigan Defensive Sacks — 3.5

Prediction: OVER

Michigan State's offense has struggled throughout the season, ranking No. 117 nationally in passing offense. They have allowed 24 sacks on the season, which comes out to three per game. I see Michigan's defensive pressure as better than average, so that's where the confidence comes from here. There should be opportunities for Jay Hill's defense to pressure the quarterback and force negative plays. With Michigan's defensive front capable of disrupting opposing offenses, four sacks wouldn't be surprising in this rivalry matchup.

5. Michigan State Total Points — 13.5

Prediction: UNDER

Michigan State enters this matchup with one of the least productive offenses in the country. The Spartans rank No. 122 in rushing offense and No. 117 in passing offense, which doesn't bode well against Jay Hill's unit that comes in at No. 3 in total defense. Unless the Wolverines commit costly turnovers or surrender explosive plays, holding Michigan State below 14 points seems very likely.

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