COLUMBIA, Mo. — The Missouri Tigers are set for a Tiger-on-Tiger matchup Saturday, as they'll travel to Auburn to take on Hugh Freeze's Tigers. Both teams are coming off losses – Mizzou its first of the season, Auburn its third.
Mizzou is facing a must-win matchup, as a second loss this early in the season would throw a major wrench in its College Football Playoff chances, and potentially knock them out of the AP Top 25.
Which three matchups does Mizzou need to win Saturday to come out on top?
The trenches
Mizzou had one of the nation's best rushing attacks heading into its Week 7 matchup against Alabama. Ahmad Hardy was leading the country with 730 rushing yards ahead of the game, and Jamal Roberts had totaled a respectable 350.
The Crimson Tide posed a credible threat to the Tigers' elite ground game, and used it to full effect. Missouri was held to a season-low 163 yards, but much of the blame can be deflected away from the running backs. Hardy and Roberts combined for 102 rushing yards, but 104 yards after contact – meaning on average, they were touched before the line of scrimmage every play.
Mizzou's offensive line has to block better going forward, and it starts against Auburn. Auburn's defense has allowed 519 rushing yards on the season on just 2.56 yards per carry, the second-lowest mark in the Southeastern Conference.
In Auburn's previous matchups against Oklahoma and Georgia, no opposing running back eclipsed 25 yards, as John Mateer and Gunnar Stockton led their teams in yards on the ground – both less than 30. However, Texas A&M running back Le'Veon Moss racked up 139 yards on 21 carries, proving that Auburn's run defense isn't perfect.
Mizzou's win-loss outcome this season has correlated with the success of the ground game, so this matchup could very well decide the final score.
Mizzou corners vs. Auburn receivers
Mizzou's corners have undeniably been the weak link of an otherwise shutdown unit this season. Of Ty Simpson's 200 passing yards against Mizzou, 112 came from 11 targets on corners Dre Norwood, Stephen Hall and Toriano Pride Jr., who allowed eight catches and a touchdown.
Auburn's receiver corps is headlined by standout duo Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton Jr., who've racked up 54 catches for 584 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Coleman has recorded a catch of at least 20 yards in four games, while Singleton has a catch of at least 30 yards in two games.
Mizzou's offensive focal point revolves around winning the possession battle by scoring on lengthy, time-consuming drives. That formula only leads to wins if the defense can prevent explosive plays, and that starts with the corners.
Jackson Arnold vs. quarterback spies
Arnold's passing game has been up-and-down so far this season, but his rushing attack has become a reliable fallback option. He ranks fourth among SEC quarterbacks with 247 rushing yards, and tied for first with six rushing touchdowns. His six rushing touchdowns makeup 1/3 of Auburn's 18 touchdowns on the season.
Mizzou has multiple options to throw a spy on Arnold in red zone situations, both at the linebacker or safety spot. Khalil Jacobs and Josiah Trotter have flown all around the field this season, sprinting from the second-level to the line of scrimmage to make key stops frequently. They'd be strong contenders, but it's also useful to keep them in their base roles.
Nicholas Rodriguez and Triston Newson are other options at the linebacker spot, as both play less than Jacobs and Trotter, but frequent enough snaps to be fresh for Arnold. Defensive coordinator Corey Batoon could also turn to defensive backs like Santana Banner or Jalen Catalon for a quicker option in goal-to-go downs.
Take away Arnold's rushing threat, and the offense loses a key piece of its scoring formula.