Nebraska Should Have Beaten 8 Ranked Teams in the Last Decade

This week, Indiana provides the Huskers with yet another opportunity to end their long losing streak to ranked opponents. Godspeed to anyone betting on this outcome happening.

Beating a ranked opponent is not that big of a deal, generally. Nearly every week there are subpar teams, many worse than Nebraska, who pull off the feat. But for whatever reason, when a number is in front of an opponent’s logo, Nebraska has been unable to avoid skid-marking its bedsheets. Now that the streak is a decade old, I dug in to find out just how weird this futility is. 

During the 32-game saga, Nebraska was favorited three times. But it’s too simplistic to say Nebraska should have won three of these games. Underdogs win all the time. I used Phil Steele’s underdog win probability odds and spreads from Gridiron AI to determine how many games bettors would have expected Nebraska to win. 

Underdogs are not measured equally. For example, last season Nebraska was picked to lose to Michigan by 0.5 points, to USC by 4.5 points, and to Utah by 13.5 points. Opponents picked to lose by 0.5 points win 47.5% of the time, those picked to lose by 4.5 points win 35.3% of the time, and those picked to lose by 13.5 points win 20.3% of the time. In other words, Nebraska was never a favorite but, cumulatively, the Huskers were expected to win one of these games.

When carrying this analysis over the 32 losses to ranked teams, Nebraska was expected to win 7.7 games. Given the spreads, a team in Nebraska’s position would have won about one-fourth of these games. Of course, Nebraska won none.

Among Husker head coaches during this streak, Scott Frost had the most losses to ranked opponents, even after crediting 2022 games to Mickey Joseph. But he did not generate the most expected wins against ranked teams. That honor belongs to Matt Rhule.

In some ways, this is a compliment to Rhule. Under Rhule, the spreads against ranked teams are generally tighter than they were under Frost, Joseph, and the back half of Riley’s tenure. Bettors show more belief in Rhule than they did in his recent predecessors. This belief comes as Rhule ended the bowl drought and improved Nebraska’s regular-season record in each season. These milestones have not translated into any ranked wins. 

Had the Huskers achieved the expected outcomes associated with their point spreads, the perception of the program would be wildly different. Frost is not an all-time disaster with three ranked wins. Rhule would probably have achieved a top-25 finish and possibly a CFP appearance with three ranked wins over his tenure.

These hypotheticals don’t mean anything because they don’t align with reality. They are nothing but a daydream for wistful fans. But understanding the statistical improbability of the ranked-win void provides perspective on why so many fans have become apathetic or angry despite the program’s gradual improvement. 

Nebraska doesn’t always play poorly in these contests. The Huskers covered the spread 12 out of 32 times. And in 12 of these contests, the Huskers' win probability exceeded 50%. 

By the numbers, the most ridiculous of these losses was the 2021 Iowa game. Nebraska had a comfortable lead and a 94% win probability before Iowa scored the final 19 points of the game. See the Groin Kick Chronicles if you need the full sadist recapping of the streak’s pain meter.

Rhule’s best shot at a ranked win came in the 2024 Illinois game, where win probability peaked at 84%. A missed field goal and Dylan Raiola overthrowing an open Luke Lindenmeyer in the end zone loomed large. 

Categorizing what constitutes a big-time victory is kind of arbitrary. Ranked wins is a simple way to measure games that really matter to programs. Like any metric, ranked wins have flaws.

The last ranked team Nebraska beat, Oregon in 2016, ended up with 4 wins and a fired coach. Nebraska’s last win of national significance, Colorado in 2024, did not count as a ranked win because Colorado was not ranked at the time. Behind Travis Hunter’s Heisman season, Colorado finished the season ranked.

To determine how much better 2024 Colorado was than 2016 Oregon, SRS ratings from Sports Reference help quantify the gap. SRS is an estimate of a team’s expected point differential against an average opponent on a neutral field. Oregon in 2016 had a 0.7 SRS while 2024 Colorado had an SRS of 8.6. This means Oregon was an average team while Colorado was more than a touchdown better than an average team. Colorado was definitely the better win, yet the Oregon game counts as a ranked win and Colorado doesn’t. Still, there haven’t been many wins against good teams. Colorado is the only win against an opponent that eventually ended the season ranked.

Point spreads are also flawed. Just look at Rhule’s near-win against a good Illinois team in 2024. Nebraska was picked to win that game by 9 points. This spread is crazy in hindsight.

Illinois proved to be much better than people gave them credit for early in the year. They finished ranked 16th in the AP poll. Shane Beamer still has not recovered from Bret Bielema breaking him. The loss to Illinois was heartbreaking. But losing to them in overtime was not as bad of a performance as people initially believed.

While all these metrics have drawbacks, they are good proxies for quantifying how competitive these games were expected to be, where Nebraska underperformed, and how unusual it is to see a power conference program on the verge of dropping three dozen of these games in a row. A decade of ineptness indicates Nebraska won’t beat Indiana. But the Huskers are looking better than they have in years and they will have numerous opportunities to beat a ranked team this season. 

As an 8.5-point underdog, Nebraska’s facing one-in-four odds to win Saturday. Given how the past decade has played out, those odds are optimistic.