Nebraska Holds the Offensive and Defensive Edge, but Special Teams Could Decide the Game

Now is when things start to get fun.

After an easy non-conference schedule, Nebraska’s upcoming games become significantly more challenging. Their first road game and first against a power-conference team is against Michigan State. This matchup is also against Nebraska’s long-time rival, Pat Fitzgerald. His Northwestern teams have consistently played Nebraska tightly, even when Nebraska had a clear talent edge. Although the statistics heavily favor Nebraska, Fitzgerald has one potential equalizer on the Spartans’ sideline: former Iowa special teams coordinator LeVar Woods.

Anthony Colandrea has quickly risen to prominence for the Huskers, making a significant impact in just three games. He has accumulated most of his total EPA through big plays this season. According to Game on Paper, he ranks as the 8th-best quarterback based on EPA per dropback, although his success rate places him 22nd nationally. I anticipate his EPA will decrease as the talent gap between the Huskers' receivers and opponents’ defenders diminishes in Big Ten play. Pro Football Focus has him as the top quarterback among Power Four programs this season.

On a per-dropback basis, Michigan State quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is as average as they come. He ranks 68th in EPA per dropback on Game on Paper. Unlike Colandrea, Milivojevic ranks higher in his success rate than in his EPA per play. He’s still behind the Huskers quarterback in that metric, ranking 37th. He’ll take what Nebraska gives him but won’t challenge them on big plays. The Spartans rank right in the middle of college football in passing explosive play rate. He also isn’t a big factor in Michigan State's running game, which is a welcome thought for Nebraska.

Jamal Rule has addressed all questions about Nebraska's plans following Emmett Johnson's departure to the NFL. Michigan State coach Pat Fitzgerald noted that Rule’s play resembles Lawrence Phillips. He is already close to entering the top 10 on the Husker freshman rushing list and is on track to surpass Ahman Green’s record for most rushing yards by a Nebraska freshman. 

The Huskers face more rushing threats besides Jamal Rule. Mekhi Nelson, Isaiah Mozee, and Anthony Colandrea have all positively contributed on the ground. However, according to EPA metrics, their impact is limited because they haven't reached the end zone as often as Rule. Still, all three have been effective at avoiding negative plays.

The Spartans are led by a bell-cow back, as opposed to the Huskers’ backfield triumvirate. Camryn Edwards has half of the team’s carries in the 2026 season. He’s an experienced player, having played four years at UConn before transferring to East Lansing. He’s currently 21st in total rushing yards among all players from 2022 to 2026. 

Edwards has done a good job of avoiding negative carries, like Nebraska’s backs. However, he hasn’t been much of a home-run threat either. His carries rarely go beyond 6 yards. Last season, though, the Blackshirts allowed teams to break off big runs. If Nebraska can prevent big runs, it should be able to keep a good Spartan’s ground game in check. 

On paper, Nebraska’s offense and defense are far superior to Michigan State’s. The Arbitrary Analytics prediction model favors Nebraska by more than two touchdowns. Naturally, I should follow the numbers and pick Nebraska, right?

The Spartans’ biggest advantage in this game is their new Special Teams coordinator, LeVar Woods. Nebraska fans may remember him as Iowa’s special teams coordinator from 2018 through 2025. If you’ve forgotten (or blocked those memories out), Iowa went 7-1 against Nebraska while he was the full-time special teams coordinator for the Hawkeyes. Only one of those games was more than a one-possession final score (last season’s blowout loss). Despite the blowout final score, Iowa turned the game around on a big special teams play against Nebraska, forcing a safety on a punt return.

In fact, the team that won the field-position battle (by average starting field position) has won every game in this series during Woods’s tenure. While the Blackshirts forced two short fields with strip sacks in their lone victory over Iowa during that time, Nebraska's punt team also capitalized on a rare Iowa muffed punt that day, which led to Nebraska's final touchdown.

Woods’s special teams units have outgained Nebraska by nearly 300 return yards over the past 8 seasons while adding two touchdowns of their own. On average, Iowa has had 7 fewer yards to go per drive than Nebraska across those matchups. The Huskers have a high-powered offense that could reduce the risk of losing the starting field-position battle to Woods and the Spartans in 2026. However, if the Spartans are able to create a special teams touchdown, they can upset the Huskers. 

Despite Michigan State’s advantage in the third phase, I’m giving Nebraska the edge. The Huskers’ advantages on offense and defense should be enough to overcome the field-position problems Woods could create, but those hidden yards will keep the Spartans within striking distance. Nebraska wins 31-24.