Nebraska-Oregon Preview: Why the Huskers Must Win Early

It’s been nearly a decade since one of the worst streaks in Nebraska football history began.

After the Huskers beat Oregon in Lincoln in the first year of a home-and-home series, Nebraska jumped into the AP Top 25. Nebraska would eventually climb to No. 7 with a 7-0 record before overtime at Camp Randall Stadium. Nebraska would lose that game and every other game against a ranked opponent since then.

Nebraska has 31 straight losses to ranked teams after that win over Oregon. The Ducks would go on to win just four games that season, finishing well out of the Top 25. Oregon was expected to be the second straight Top 10 team the Huskers faced this season. However, Oregon looks closer to the 2016 team than anyone expected. The Huskers’ AP Poll losing streak won’t end this week, but this game is the most important of the Matt Rhule era.

The Huskers need to start this game as strongly as they did against Indiana. That means winning early downs, establishing the run, and turning Oregon’s quarterback uncertainty and season into an early lead.

A win would do more than secure bowl eligibility. It would show that Nebraska can follow a competitive performance against Indiana with another complete effort against a talented opponent—the next step toward becoming consistently competitive under Matt Rhule.

Anthony Colandrea continues to show why this staff recruited him. He hasn’t been perfect, completing only 58% of his passes and throwing an interception against Indiana, with no passing touchdowns. However, he can extend plays with his feet, outrun defenders as he did against Indiana, and bring emotional energy to the Huskers. As a passer, Game on Paper still ranks him in the top third of quarterbacks by EPA per dropback and success rate on passes.

After Dante Moore chose to return to Oregon, the Ducks became one of the top national title contenders in 2026. A dirty hit by USC ended Moore’s trip to LA (and possibly his college career). Now Oregon's quarterback situation is in flux. Dylan, like Mariota, Herbert, and Harrington, was a “hero in line”, beating USC in relief of Moore. However, he had arguably the worst game of his career against UCLA and was benched. 

The starter for Oregon is now up in the air between Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas (although Akili Smith Jr. is also reportedly playing with the starters in practice). Dante Moore was struggling in the Oregon offense before his injury. He was ranked 100th in success rate before the injury, per Game on Paper. Neither Raiola nor Thomas has enough snaps to qualify.

I don’t expect whoever Oregon plays at quarterback to have much success passing in this game. I don’t think Dan Lanning will start Raiola. Matt Rhule has seen him play far more than Lanning has and knows his limitations better than anyone. Brock Thomas or Akili Smith Jr. offer high-variance upside that Oregon may need to get its offense going by offering an unexpected look.

Jamal Rule returned as the Huskers’ lead back against Indiana, but despite tougher competition and a return from injury, he still lacked the spark he showed in earlier games. I expect to see a lot of Rule in this matchup. Oregon ranks 112th in early-down EPA allowed this season. Nebraska should be able to get ahead of the sticks by running the ball effectively against this vulnerable early-down defense. As in the Indiana game, Nebraska will want to keep the ball away from Oregon’s offense and help take the crowd out of the game with long, time-consuming drives.

In terms of rushing yards per game, Oregon looks average in the Big Ten. However, digging into the game logs, 40% of their rushing yards this season came against Portland State (289 rushing yards). North Dakota managed 291 rushing yards against Portland State. Through three quarters, the Fighting Hawks had just 21 rushing yards against Nebraska. 

Nebraska should be able to stifle Oregon’s rushing attack. Jordon Davison has big-play ability, but he’s often stopped before getting 5 yards. Davison is tied for 3rd in rushing touchdowns among Big Ten running backs. However, Game on Paper, which only uses FBS vs. FBS matchups, grades Oregon 121st in EPA per rush attempt. Whoever starts at QB for Oregon will have to beat the Huskers through the air. 

Nebraska needs to win this game early – in two ways. The first is on early downs. Oregon ranks 2nd in the country in defensive 3rd-down efficiency and 8th in 3rd/4th-down success rate allowed. When it gets to late downs, the Duck defense gets tough. As I said before, they are just 112th on early downs. Winning on first and second down should get the Huskers scoring points. 

The other way is to win early in the game. Despite the loss, Nebraska is carrying momentum from competing with the best teams in the country in this game. Oregon is coming off a tough loss to UCLA. If Nebraska can get out to a lead in the first half, it's going to be hard to keep Duck fans engaged in the late-night game. The Huskers rank 22nd in first-half points scored this season. The best way to avoid the 3rd-quarter slump is to take Oregon out of the game before the second half.

The impact of this game on Husker football can’t be overstated. The Huskers need to carry the momentum from a good game against Indiana into this matchup. It’s the next step toward becoming a competitive team week in and week out. For the first time this season, my model and my personal picks disagree. Oregon’s quarterback uncertainty, combined with a weak defense on early downs, makes them vulnerable. My model favors the Ducks by nearly ten points, but I think the Huskers win this one and reach win No. 6 of the season.