Nebraska's Final Test before a Tough Big Ten Schedule

Nebraska rounds out its 2026 non-conference slate with its first FCS opponent of the season – North Dakota.

However, Nebraska fans shouldn’t assume this will be the easiest opponent of the young season. Bill Connelly, the creator of the SP+ metric, rates the Fighting Hawks ahead of the Huskers’ two MAC opponents. So far, they’ve looked the part, beating each of their opponents by 3+ touchdowns. North Dakota will be a solid opponent despite the divisional gap. However, Nebraska has looked strong in each of its first two games as well and should be prepared for the challenge.

Anthony Colandrea looked like a star quarterback in the Huskers’ second game against Bowling Green. I had concerns about whether he could sustain drives through the air after the first game. He did, posting a 73% success rate on pass plays while still managing five explosive plays. Nebraska ranks among the top 35 in passing success rate and the top 15 in explosive pass play rate. It’s a strong combination that should serve them well into conference play.

North Dakota quarterback Jerry Kaminski ranks near the top of every FCS passing leaderboard. He’s played four years in the North Dakota program and led the team to an FCS playoff game victory in his first year as a starter. Kaminski won’t be intimidated by the big crowds in Lincoln either. Last season, he led the Fighting Hawks to a late 4th-quarter lead at Kansas State. They ultimately fell after Kansas State scored the game-winning touchdown with 42 seconds left. Kaminski is the best quarterback the Huskers have faced this season.

The Nebraska running back room has been a pleasant surprise this season. I expected a drop-off after losing star back Emmett Johnson, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Jamal Rule is a star in the making, and Mekhi Nelson and Isaiah Mozee are solid backs as well. Jamal Rule has a total EPA of 17.2. For comparison, Emmett Johnson finished last year with a total EPA of 26.08. While Rule won’t be able to sustain that level of production against Big Ten opponents, it shows how much of an impact he’s already making.

North Dakota has a pair of good backs. Charles Langama leads their backfield. He’s averaging an impressive 8.8 yards per carry and has contributed an EPA of 14.4 through their first three games. Matt Lawson has also been a big contributor on the traditional stat sheet. However, a fumble on first and ten deep in their own territory really cost Lawson in the EPA standings for his team.

All North Dakota players have done a good job of avoiding plays that result in negative yards. However, players like Larson have struggled to gain even medium-sized runs, leaving the Fighting Hawks behind the sticks and contributing to his negative EPA.

I think Nebraska wins this game comfortably. However, there’s still a lot to learn about Nebraska in this game. Last week, Anthony Colandrea and the passing offense answered my questions about their passing success rate. This week, I want to see whether the defense can step up.

Can the Blackshirts run defense step up on standard downs*? Ohio and Bowling Green had a 47.8% success rate on standard downs when running the ball (dropping Nebraska’s defense down to 76th in the country). This allows them to get ahead of the sticks and take drives away from a good Nebraska offense. North Dakota has a good offensive line, so this will be a real test for Nebraska. If North Dakota can run well on these plays, you can bet that Pat Fitzgerald and Kirk Ferentz will be able to do so as well.

*First downs, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, and fourth-and-4 or fewer. 

I also want to see whether Nebraska’s defensive line can stop the opponent’s power runs. So far this season, Nebraska’s opponents have been successful on all such plays. These are drive-ending opportunities that the Blackshirts have allowed opponents to stay on the field. To succeed in the Big Ten in November, you must make plays here. North Dakota has been stopped just twice on 13 tries in these situations.

**Runs on third or fourth down with less than two yards to go.

Despite the FCS label, North Dakota may be the best non-conference opponent Nebraska faces in 2026. They will be a real test for the Nebraska defensive line. However, the Nebraska offense is loaded with weapons, and the Fighting Hawks won’t be able to keep up. I predict Nebraska will win 56-24.