It’s okay to think bigger.

It’s okay to see more things happening positively.

It’s okay to expect this team to be in the upper half of the B1G.

Oh, hello. I was just having an internal conversation and almost forgot I have a job to do. Don’t get defensive. I wasn’t talking to you. I already know how many people would react to such sentiments. “You’re a fool. Don’t you know Matt Rhule is still coaching. They do this every year. The Big Ten will eat Nebraska up and spit them out.”

Or

“Don’t say this out loud! How can we sneak up on anybody and beat them when they least expect it when THEY’RE EXPECTING IT!”

So, my internal monologue isn’t for you. It’s for me. Why, then, am I allowing this to be put out into the public?

Because after three games versus overmatched opponents it is how I see this 2026 Nebraska football team. Much of it is what I have seen and heard; some of it is what was reported earlier this week (more on that later).

This team just looks different. Saturday helped bring that into focus. It starts with the quarterback. Everything in football starts there. Nebraska has a gamer, a creator, a leader…with a lot of experience, perhaps the most important element. It helps that he has the best of everything he’s ever had around him. From backs to receivers to linemen. But this unit is clicking at a level no Matt Rhule Nebraska offense has clicked.

The first drive of Saturday’s win started ominously as North Dakota’s Wiltshire nearly blew up a wide receiver screen. It was a play almost reminiscent of the disastrous first play at Oklahoma in Bo Pelini’s first season, 2008, when a similar effort got taken back to the house.

But this one was just a mere pass breakup, after that, it was six-yard runs, two third and short conversions, then a chunk – 24 yards from Mekhi Nelson – and two plays after that, Anthony Colandrea’s 10-yard scamper into the endzone.

While the offense was en route to another 500-ish-yard performance, it was the defensive effort that was the biggest takeaway. I really thought North Dakota would have some success against the new-look Blackshirts. Jerry Kaminiski is a pro-level quarterback in the making. His offense accompanied by good pieces had put up big numbers and will put up big numbers the rest of this season.

But Saturday was not that night. Kaminski was just 9 of 18 for 106 yards. A Fighting Hawks running game averaging over 6.0 yards per carry was never a factor and limited to 2.8 yards per carry. North Dakota didn’t convert its first third down until the fourth quarter and it wasn’t because they were making consistent first downs on first or second down. I truly thought this would be a game that would test Nebraska’s defenders more than any other team so far in 2026.

Instead, it was merely a final tune-up for the “real season”, one that will stress joints that haven’t been stressed, test weaknesses that haven’t been exploited.

I just see something in this group that tells me they can be better at mitigating the weaknesses and stress their conference rivals. If you don’t, that’s fine. Just remember where you saw this first because I’m sure the naysayers will be quick to make me eat these words if it doesn’t.

I won’t dare say the Huskers "don’t miss Emmett Johnson," but through three games this season, the Husker running backs have had three straight 200-yard games. That hasn’t been done since 2014 when NU had Ameer Abdullah. In other years, NU has needed its quarterback to help get to said mark. So far in 2026, Nebraska is averaging 6.5 yards per carry, a full TWO yards above last year’s total.

The Huskers are also a full 1.5 yards per play above last year’s average with a 493-yard day and 6.9 YPP. Nebraska has been above 6.0 YPP in every game in 2026, a benchmark that has yielded a 12-1 record for Matt Rhule-led teams.

So far, the run/pass ratio has been 57% run. Who expected that before the season – without a major contribution from their quarterback?

Rob Aurich said earlier in the week that he has three benchmarks for his defense to hit.

Well, the Blackshirts went 3 for 3. A 2.75 YPC, a sub-50% completion rate and North Dakota converted just 1 out of 13 third downs.

So far in 2026, NU has shaved 1.7 yards off its YPC allowed from last year while opposing quarterbacks are completing LESS than 50% of their throws (49%) and the third-down conversion rate is only 22.5% through three games.

Nebraska was great at getting off the field versus the Hawks and faced just 55 plays Saturday. They also still created HAVOC at a high rate. When combining QB hurries, Nebraska had 14 HAVOC plays – or over 25% of North Dakota’s plays featured some sort of defensive disruption. The Blackshirts have been above 25% HAVOC (with QB hurries added) in all three games this season, the first time under Rhule the defense has met the 25% rate in three straight.

The five sacks were the most since a five-sack game at Purdue in 2024.

Numbers That Might Only Interest Me

An oddity about the start of the season: Nebraska has seen the opponent run more than pass in every game this season despite playing from behind. Usually, this is a bad sign for Nebraska as they have won less than 42% of their games the last two decades when defending more runs than passes.

The Nebraska offense has also not been stressed by HAVOC plays against. When factoring in QB hurries, Nebraska has only allowed a 12% HAVOC rate and Colandrea has only been sacked three times. Last year, NU was off to a similar start after non-conference before Michigan and Michigan State rained fire down on Dylan Raiola. We’ll see what Michigan State and Maryland have for the Big Red. Before last Saturday, Maryland had 10 sacks in two games so it will be something worth watching.

Red Zone Efficiency

Nebraska went 4/4 scoring in the red zone but sadly the touchdown streak ended with two of those drives ending in short field goals. However, Nebraska is still a perfect 12 for 12 scoring once they get inside the opponent’s 20.

Also, the defense got just it’s second red zone stop in two seasons with the 4 th quarter denial of the Hawks on a turnover on downs.

Turnover Margin

There were no turnovers Saturday and Nebraska has just one through three games, an excellent start considering all the concern folks had about Anthony Colandrea’s reputation. The Huskers are still sub-500 under Rhule in games where the turnover margin is 0, which is one of the odder stats about the last four years. Nebraska since 1973 is 97-39-2 when splitting the turnover battle but just 6-7 under Rhule counting Saturday’s win.

Colandrea Offensive Rate

Anthony Colandrea accounted for 214 total yards Saturday (195 pass, 19 rush) and out of 493 total yards, Colandrea’s rate was 43.4%, his lowest number of the year.

For the season: Colandrea 767 total yards; Nebraska 1562 total yards = 49.1% Colandrea offensive rate

Point Spread Differential

Thanks to a surge by bettors on Saturday, the closing line was Nebraska -27.5 which was 3 points higher than where it had been practically all week. The Huskers failed to cover (though only by 0.5 points) for the first time this season. This makes them 2-1 ATS with a spread differential of 22.5.

I’m sure Matt Rhule is not sweating this in the least.

Anthony Colandrea

Another highly efficient game, going 15 for 21 and, once again, no turnovers. Of the six incompletions, I would only grade one of them a “dangerous throw.” The impressive thing is his upper body control as several times he is throwing medium-range balls without really having the classic footwork. Throwing on the run, throwing with his feet not set yet still being accurate.

Justin Evans

Nebraska’s center gets the love not only for his individual efforts (nice iso package on the BTN broadcast about his activity) but for the collective efforts of the boys up front. Nebraska added three more rushing plays of 20+ yards and they were already 3 rd in the nation in that category entering the game.

Rob Aurich

This feels like a cop-out but given that none of the individual players had gaudy numbers but this unit played so well given North Dakota’s offensive prowess, SOMEBODY representing the Blackshirts has to be honored. I really thought this would be closer to a shootout, at least in the first half. Instead, Nebraska stifled the Hawks with different pressure looks and a run defense that walled up a rushing attack which was averaging over 6.0 yards per carry.

A report this past week in The Athletic opened eyes into one of the burning questions of this college football season.

How much are folks spending on players?

The answer, for Nebraska, was quite a bit. A $31 to $35 million estimate for the 2026 Husker football roster, good for 18th most in the country and 6th most in the B1G. Only Oregon, Ohio State, USC, Indiana and Michigan spent more.

Before Matt Rhule’s contract extension, he sent out a not-so-subtle message to the Husker Nation about needing more money for players. Apparently somebody answered because these estimates, when compared to most of the league, are a lot higher than previous estimates of where Nebraska’s place was in the world of pay-for-play. And that’s good.

It is also good for raising the bar of expectations for 2026. Rhule and his boss, Troy Dannen, have been blunt about how money = better players and better players = better opportunity for wins. In my opinion, that should mean fans should expect better. Because if it doesn’t, that same money might not be there for next year’s roster or the roster after that.

This is the danger of the new era of college football (among many landmines that exist for this sport), the instant expectation that buying players means buying wins. While the notion of paying players has always been there in college football, this is the NIL Era.

Now, It’s Legal.

When people donate for brick-and-mortar projects, there’s permanence there. The promise that this building, this weightroom, this stadium will be there for generations of rosters to come. But when the money is donated for the players themselves, the return on investment is short-lived and subject to much more reactionary donations. If this $31 to $35 million roster doesn’t return more success, the chances of folks anteing up for another $31 to $35 million dollar roster next season goes down. And this year’s $31 to $35 million is likely to be $35 to $40 million next year based on the current rate of increase in player valuations.

The “Saving College Sports From Itself” Act promises to be another game changer for the college football industrial complex, but the public acknowledgement of the paying players era of the sport is here and not going anywhere.

But the donors, if the R.O.I. doesn’t produce immediate results, could be.