Matt Rhule is infamously 0-10 against AP-ranked opponents at Nebraska, with the program suffering a drought against such foes that goes back a decade. But that doesn't tell the whole story.

Earlier this week, when asked about the number of upsets across college football, Rhule said he wasn't surprised.

"If you go back and listen to the things I've said over and over again," Rhule began. "We sit there in the summer, and we're like, 'This could be a tough game. This could be a hard game. This could be an easy game.'

"I just don't think anybody knows... The biggest travesty right now is the preseason top 25. I mean, if that was the stock market, would you put your money in it?"

This isn't an uncommon sentiment. The AP poll has come under heavy scrutiny, especially over the past several years. Many believe the poll is becoming more and more outdated, with a shrinking pool of overworked voters trying to gauge how good teams are that are changing more than they ever have.

And yet, if the AP and Coaches didn't do it, someone else would. Ultimately, the polls don't matter—the optics do. And the optics say Rhule and Nebraska have struggled against teams that have had a number beside their name at the most important moments of the season.

Polls shift week to week throughout a season, and can see major differences from the preseason release to the final installment.

Going back to 2022, the final AP Poll's top 10 has featured 16 teams that were not in the preseason top 10. This includes eight teams (2022 Tennessee, Penn State, Washington, & Tulane; 2023 Missouri; 2024 Arizona State, Boise State, & Indiana) that were outside of the initial top 25.

As for the CFP Rankings, which come out later in the year and end as teams go into the playoff and bowl season, it has featured eight teams in its final top 10 that were not there at the first release. Those teams had an average ranking of 9.4, with a high of eight (2025 Oklahoma) going into the bowl season. The initial CFP ranking has had the top seven for the final ranking in each of the last four seasons.

Those are both out of 50 available spots. That means, over the past four years, the AP Preseason Top 25's top 10 has a 60% hit rate on teams that will finish in the top 10, with 20% of the others entering the season ranked. The CFP's initial ranking has an 80% hit rate on teams that will be in its final top 10 who were in the initial ranking.

As for the preseason poll and its potential influence on the CFP rankings, the top 10 in the initial CFP rankings over the past four years have featured 18 teams that were not in the AP's preseason top 10. Of those, five opened the year unranked.

The AP's preseason top 10 has a 55% hit rate of those teams being in the CFP's initial ranking. With nearly half of the teams in the initial CFP ranking, which has actual weight for postseason play, that gives two takeaways:

Heading into the final weekend of November, the last AP Poll that won't be featured alongside a College Football Playoff Ranking (to be released Nov. 3) has five teams in the top 10 that were not there in the preseason: No. 6 Utah, No. 7 UCLA, No. 8 BYU, No. 9 Kentucky, and No. 10 Alabama. The Bruins and Wildcats were not ranked entering the year.

As the College Football Playoff expands to 24 teams, the hit rate will fall for the preseason rankings. There is even more variance between the full preseason top 25 to the final CFP rankings. Of the 100 teams in the final CFP rankings over the past four seasons, 48 were not in the AP's Preseason Top 25.

Extrapolating that out to a 24-team playoff, that projects for close to 50% of the field to be made up of teams that opened the season unranked in any given year.

While Rhule may not believe the preseason AP poll holds much weight, that hasn't stopped his teams from struggling against them. Since arriving in Lincoln, Rhule is 0-10 against teams ranked in the AP Preseason Top 25.

As a matter of fact, Rhule has only beaten one team that was in any of the Preseason Top 25, initial CFP Rankings, final CFP Rankings, or final AP Poll: 2024 Colorado. Those Buffaloes went 9-4, but didn't face any of the top four teams in the Big 12, had a boost from the Deion effect, and featured Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter.

Here is how Rhule's Huskers have fared against teams in each of those four rankings:

The Huskers are 0-2 this year against preseason AP Top 25 teams, losing to Indiana and Oregon. There are three games against such opponents remaining on the schedule: Saturday against Washington, Nov. 21 vs. Ohio State, and Black Friday at Iowa.

While the preseason top 25 may not hold all of the weight by the time the games are finally played, it has been a group of teams that have had Rhule's number at Nebraska. This Saturday will be another opportunity for him to get his first win against such an opponent since arriving in Lincoln, with at least two more chances next month.