North Carolina has struggled at the free-throw line this season, and it is one of those things that might be fine now, but won’t be when it matters.
Sitting at 68.5% from the stripe, UNC is in a position where it has to get better at the free-throw line.
While that’s a given, there were some interesting stats that agree and disagree with needing to get better.
Rodd Baxley broke it down, writing that two of UNC’s six championship teams shot under 70% at the line.
“Two of UNC’s six NCAA title-winning teams shot under 70% at the free-throw line, with the 1957 champions making 69.4% of their freebies and the 1982 champs knocking down 69.2% from the line,” he wrote. “The 1993 (70.6%), 2005 (72.5%), 2009 (75.2%) and 2017 national champions (70.1%) shot 70% or better from the stripe,” he wrote.
There are a few ways to look at that.
Does North Carolina need to be elite at the line to win big? Maybe not, but history shows it almost always needs to be at least average. Most championship teams aren’t leaving five to 10 points on the board.
While former UNC teams have won, Baxley’s other stat shows just how bad it can be, which is more important than what happened in 1957 and 1982.
“But of the last 13 Tar Heel teams to shoot under 70% from the free-throw line, only three advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament,” he added. “Three of those squads missed March Madness and two finished with a losing record, including the COVID-shortened 2020 season.”
Teams that struggle at the line tend to struggle when things matter. March Madness isn’t about blowing teams out, as we all know, it’s about winning close games against underdogs and Blue Bloods.
Missed free throws turn into momentum swings, even against the worst teams in the country.
For this UNC group, the concern isn’t just the percentage. UNC has to worry about teams scoring in transition on misses, missing late in games, and much more.
The fix isn’t easy, but it’s crucial.
North Carolina doesn’t need to shoot 90%, but it needs to be a lot better.
If it doesn’t, history suggests this could be another Tar Heel team that can win but not when it matters.