North Carolina’s margin for error in the ACC race may already be gone.
ESPN predicted which teams would win the major conferences, and North Carolina is now projected to come up short in the ACC regular-season title race, with Duke coming in as the clear favorite through January.
“Part of the reason Duke's status as league favorite is so strong is the likely next three teams in the pecking order have already lost ACC games. North Carolina lost by 14 at SMU on Saturday, Louisville has dropped two in a row with Mikel Brown Jr. sidelined, and Virginia fell in three overtimes to Virginia Tech on New Year's Eve. Carolina looked like the biggest threat to Duke prior to the SMU loss; Caleb Wilson has been sensational and he and Henri Veesaar form one of the more potent frontcourt duos in the country.
“Louisville just isn't the same without Brown, and it's unclear when he will be back in the fold. At full strength, the Cardinals' backcourt and elite shooting ability give them a chance against anyone in America,” Jeff Borzello wrote.
That SMU loss was very ugly, but it shouldn’t be season-defining.
Prior to the loss, North Carolina looked like a team capable of matching any in the ACC on any given night, as long as it was defending.
Losing 97-83 on the road doesn’t really change all of that, but the defense was just so bad that it’s almost fair to question whether UNC will figure things out.
On the flip side, Caleb Wilson has been as good as advertised, emerging as one of the most impactful players in the country. It’s tough to ask a freshman to do all of the things that will make UNC win the ACC regular season, but he’ll be tasked with just that.
UNC still has time, and the pieces to make a push are, but after the SMU loss, the path just got much tougher. Obviously, UNC wasn’t going to go undefeated in the regular season conference play, but it also shouldn’t lose games to SMU.
We’ll see how UNC looks on Saturday against Wake Forest at home.