ESPN’s data paints a grim picture for the North Carolina Tar Heels against Notre Dame.
North Carolina knows they have the decked stacked against them in Week 5, but it certainly doesn't help to see these type of predictions pour in.
Each and every week, ESPN's Bill Connelly submits his SP+ predictions.
This week was no different, and the numbers are clearly not in the Tar Heels favor.
Notre Dame comes to Kenan Stadium ranked No. 3 in the AP Top 25 for a reason, and Connelly fully believes this game will be over before it gets started.
On paper, Marcus Freeman vs. Bill Belichick is an incredible showdown, but this Tar Heels team simply doesn't have the talent that Notre Dame does, and that's exactly why Connelly predicts a Week 5 blowout.
Notre Dame predicted to win 36-13
Connelly's projected winner, to no surprise, is Notre Dame. He expects the margin of victory to be in the 22.5 points range, so seeing his score prediction of 36-13 fits right into that scenario.
Overall, he gives the Fighting Irish a 92% win probability in this game, and that's par for the course with what ESPN Analytics says.
According to ESPN Analytics, UNC is given just an 8.7% chance to win this game, meaning Notre Dame is given a 91.3% chance to win in their matchup predictor.
None of these numbers are too kind to the Tar Heels, but that's just that. They're only numbers.
The game still needs to be played, and there have already been a few high-profile upsets on the college football field this season, so there's no reason not to believe Belichick can't get the job done against Freeman.
What it'll take for UNC to shock the world
To say it'll take a perfect 60 minutes of football would be an understatement. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has been fine this season, just not spectacular. If he wants to outduel Heisman hopeful CJ Carr, he's going to need to play the game of his life.
The same goes for everyone else on this Tar Heels roster, but that's to be expected. Even with Belichick in the fold, UNC simply doesn't have the NIL to bring in the caliber of players that Freeman can.
That's the modern era of college football, so there's nothing that can be done. Belichick won big at a few spots in the portal, so now he's hoping that after his first full offseason with the program, everyone plays their hearts out and can secure him a defining win, something he's desperately lacked since coming over to coach college football.
