UNC coach Scott Forbes is sticking with Ryan Lynch as his Game 1 starter against USC in the Chapel Hill Super Regional. Here's why the sophomore's recent dominance, length, and momentum may give the Tar Heels their best path to Omaha.
UNC Baseball coach Scott Forbes announced on Thursday that Ryan Lynch, not season-long ace Jason DeCaro, will be the Game 1 starting pitcher in the Chapel Hill Super Regional, beginning Friday, June 5.
The Diamond Heels are hosting the USC Trojans, winners of the College Station Regional, who upset host and No. 12 national seed Texas A&M. The Trojan bats come in on a hot streak having outscored opponents 55-14 in the final four games of the regional, following an opening game 5-4 loss to Texas State.
This will be the second straight weekend that Coach Forbes has altered his rotation, choosing to start the sophomore Lynch in Game 1 of the Regional round vs. VCU. The assumption at the time was that UNC was simply "pitching off" against the regional four-seed Rams so as to have their No. 1 starter, DeCaro, ready for a likely Game 2 matchup with the Tennessee Volunteers.
DeCaro, in that Game 2 start, which ultimately ended up being against ECU, who upset Tennesse, was unable to make it out of the fourth inning, giving way to freshman sensation Caden Glauber. This marked the second straight game that DeCaro did not make it to the fifth inning, the first time that has happened in back-to-back games in his entire Tar Heel career.
Meanwhile, Lynch threw seven innings of two-hit, shutout baseball in Game 1 vs. VCU.
These differing results left many wondering if Coach Forbes would keep the same rotation for the Super Regional round. The answer, it turns out, is "yes".
The Argument for Ryan Lynch
On the season, DeCaro leads in ERA (2.54 to 4.07), WHIP (1.38 to 1.44), W-L (10-2 to 5-4), opponent BA (.250 to .272), hits allowed (71 to 88), and earned runs allowed (22 to 38).
While the conventional wisdom might lead to trusting DeCaro's season-long numbers, which are superior to those of Lynch, gaining the early edge in a win-or-go home scenario changes the calulus.
Perhaps a good way to frame it: Which pitcher gives you a better shot at length RIGHT NOW in a critical Game 1 of a best-of-3 series?
The clear answer is Ryan Lynch.
Just once in his last nine starts, dating back to the beginning of April, has DeCaro recorded an out in the sixth inning or beyond (April 23 at Duke). In that same time frame, Lynch has achieved the feat four times, including last weekend's brilliant start.
Additionally, Lynch has the superior fastball (in terms of MPH) and the eye test suggests that he is currently doing a better job avoiding barrels than DeCaro.
Ideal Scenario
In an ideal world, Game 1 plays out similarly to last weekend: Lynch throws seven innings and turns the ball over to Walker McDuffie to close things out, or throw just the eighth, with someone like Matty Matthijs closing out a Tar Heel victory in the ninth.
That allows Coach Forbes to more aggressively manage his arms in Game 2. Stick with DeCaro as long as he is rolling, but with a short leash. Glauber follows him out of the pen, who is arguably UNC's best and most dominant pitcher right now. Then re-evaluate as necessary.
In that scenario, Coach Forbes must keep a couple bullets for a potential Game 3 if things do not go as planned (as happened in Game 2 of the Super Regional last year vs. Arizona). Folger Boaz would get the start and then it's all-hands-on-deck.
Bottom Line
Regardless of Coach Forbes' decision between DeCaro and Lynch, he needs strong performances out of each on Friday and Saturday. USC is one of the teams in the country that can match (outmatch?) Carolina in terms of the top two arms. The Tar Heel offense will certainly have its hands full.
One thing working in UNC's favor: EXPERIENCE. DeCaro and Lynch have a combined three starts in the Super Regional round (plus a College World Series start for DeCaro). USC's 1-2 duo of Mason Edwards and Grant Govel? None.
The other piece of good news for the Tar Heels: waiting in the wings are two of the most dominant bullpen arms in the country: Glauber and the gloriously-bespectacled sophomore Walker McDuffie. Not to mention the emergence of freshman Jackson Rose, who threw four nearly flawless innings in closing out the Regional vs. ECU last weekend (0 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk).
