Despite his dominant season at North Carolina, scouts worry the star forward remains a raw prospect compared to the elite trio projected atop the lottery.
Caleb Wilson more than showed how important he was to North Carolina last year.
With Wilson on the court, UNC upset Duke during the regular season. The freshman forward averaged 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.
Wilson suffered a thumb injury and hand injury and didn't play for the Tar Heels after Feb. 10.
UNC didn't play its best basketball without its star athlete and was bounced by VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, leading to the ouster of head coach Hubert Davis.
Following the early exit from the tournament, Wilson declared for the 2026 NBA Draft, which didn't come as a surprise. He was expected to be one of the best players in the draft this summer.
However, there appears to be distance between Wilson and the top three draft picks.
Jeremy Woo of ESPN thinks Wilson will go No. 4 in the draft behind AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. The NBA Draft lottery is announced on Sunday, but Woo has Wilson going to the Utah Jazz.
Woo argues that Wilson will need more time to develop in the NBA than the top three prospects.
"Wilson rounds out the consensus top four as a serious upside swing, but he is further from approaching his ceiling than the other three top prospects," Woo wrote. "The infusion of talent and energy he would bring could be attractive for Utah, even with a crowded frontcourt that includes Jaren Jackson, Lauri Markkanen and restricted free agent Walker Kessler.
"Taking a best-available approach is prudent as the Jazz shift toward being competitive next season. As is the case for the majority of teams in this lottery, the Jazz's most direct path to adding a franchise-changing talent is the draft."
The good news for Wilson is that he's viewed as a player who can change the face of a franchise. He has plenty of talent and was a strong leader at UNC, but it will take time for him to make a critical impact in the NBA.
Wilson would likely struggle for minutes early in his career in Utah, but that could be for the better.