After showing flashes as an NC State freshman, Matt Able arrives at UNC with a chance to become one of Michael Malone’s top scorers. Can his shooting, confidence and two-way growth spark a major sophomore breakout?
The Locked On Tar Heels annual basketball roster preview series has officially moved beyond North Carolina’s four incoming freshmen.
After examining Maximo Adams, Sayon Keita, Malloy Smith, and Kevin Thomas, the fifth installment begins the sophomore class with one of the most fascinating players on Michael Malone’s first UNC roster: former NC State guard Matt Able.
Able’s move from Raleigh to Chapel Hill is historic. He is believed to be the first Wolfpack basketball player to transfer directly to North Carolina in the modern era, crossing rivalry lines after only one season at NC State. However, his previous affiliation should quickly become secondary if he produces at the level the Tar Heels expect.
The Baltimore native played in all 34 games as a freshman but never started, averaging 8.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 0.9 assists in 21.8 minutes per contest. He shot 41.6% from the field, 35.5% from 3-point range and 79.6% at the free-throw line. Able also made 49 triples and attempted more than four per game despite his limited role.
Those numbers were encouraging, but North Carolina did not bring Able in to remain a complementary player.
The expectation is that he will start, play at least 30 minutes per game and establish himself as one of the Tar Heels’ primary scoring options. Terrence Brown Jr. may enter the season as the presumed leading scorer, but Able has a legitimate opportunity to challenge him for that distinction.
Able’s greatest weapon is his outside shooting. His quick release, strong shot preparation and ability to connect from multiple areas of the floor should make him especially dangerous alongside creators such as Brown and Neoklis Avdalas. Able converted 43% of his transition 3-point opportunities last season and has shown the ability to score both as a catch-and-shoot threat and off the dribble.
He is also more than a stationary shooter.
Able runs the floor well, finishes with either hand and uses decisive straight-line drives to attack aggressive closeouts. His shot fakes and pass fakes are particularly effective because defenders must respect his jumper. Once opponents leave their feet or shift out of position, he has the strength, creativity and basketball IQ to reach the basket.
The biggest question is whether Able can consistently embrace his new status.
At NC State, he occasionally faded into the background or passed up opportunities. That cannot happen in Chapel Hill. Able must hunt his shot, demand the ball and understand that North Carolina will sometimes need him to be selfish. He is no longer merely a talented freshman playing behind older guards. He is expected to be one of the Tar Heels’ most important players.
There are defensive improvements to make as well. Able’s active hands helped him produce an impressive steal rate, but he must improve his lateral quickness when matched against smaller guards and maintain better awareness away from the ball. If those areas develop, his positive wingspan and instincts could make him a dependable two-way contributor.
Able can also continue expanding his on-ball game. He finished his freshman season with an equal number of assists and turnovers (thought his turnover rate was higher than his assist rate), but there were flashes of playmaking ability in transition and within the half court. Malone does not need him to become a full-time point guard, but an improved midrange game, floater and passing package would make him much harder to defend.
A reasonable projection would place Able somewhere above 13 points per game while shooting in the high 30s from beyond the arc and better than 80% at the free-throw line. His ceiling, though, is considerably higher. He could lead Carolina in made 3-pointers, contend for all-conference recognition and even emerge as the team’s leading scorer.
One bold prediction made during the Locked On Tar Heels preview was that Able could tie North Carolina’s single-game record of eight made 3-pointers. An even bolder possibility is that he finishes the season as UNC’s top scorer.
For the Tar Heels, Able represents both immediate production and long-term opportunity. A major sophomore breakout would strengthen Malone’s first team while providing an early example of the new head coach’s ability to develop NBA-caliber talent.
Able crossed enemy lines to become a Tar Heel. Now he has the opportunity to become one of Carolina’s next stars.
Here's the full Locked On Tar Heels episode discussing Matt Able:
