Many possibilities are still in play with four games remaining.
As the end of the college basketball season nears, the postseason picture is becoming clearer. Northwestern (11-16, 3-13 B1G) will not reach the NCAA Tournament, pending a miracle, but the Wildcats will compete in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago after the conference changed the format to accommodate all 18 teams.
That being said, there are still a lot of possibilities for where the 'Cats could end up in the bracket. It's highly unlikely that Northwestern wins out and climbs into the middle third of the Big Ten, but stranger things have happened in college hoops.
Before the Wildcats embark on their final stretch of the season, here are the best-case and worst-case scenarios — no matter how likely or unlikely — that could affect Northwestern's Big Ten Tournament seeding:
Where Things Currently Stand:
At 3-13 in Big Ten play, Northwestern is currently tied with Oregon for the 16th-ranked record in the conference. Every school except Illinois and Penn State has four regular-season games remaining before the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament begins on Tuesday, Mar. 10.
Northwestern will face Indiana in Bloomington on Tuesday night, then return home to play the struggling Ducks on Saturday. After that, the Wildcats host Purdue on Mar. 4 and close out conference play at Minnesota on Mar. 7.
What Is The Wildcats' Best Possible Outcome?
If Northwestern manages to go 4-0 down the stretch by upsetting Indiana (17-10, 8-8 B1G) and Purdue (22-5, 12-4 B1G), getting revenge against Minnesota (13-14, 6-10 B1G) and handling Oregon (10-17, 3-13 B1G), the Wildcats would end the season with a 7-13 conference record. It would mark the second consecutive year the 'Cats finish 7-13 in the Big Ten.
Ten teams have already exceeded seven wins this season, which means the highest Big Ten Tournament spot the Wildcats could earn would be the No. 11 seed. USC (18-9, 7-9 B1G) is the current occupant of that position, and if the Trojans lose their final four games, a 7-13 Northwestern team would enter a tiebreaker. Since the 'Cats defeated USC on Jan. 21, 74-68, NU would own the head-to-head advantage and win the tiebreaker.
However, that tiebreaker victory is contingent on Washington (13-14, 5-11 B1G) not finishing with the same record. The Huskies would need to go 2-2 over their final four games, and the tiebreaker would then be decided by which team has the best head-to-head winning percentage against opponents in the group.
In a three-way tie, for example, Northwestern would have beaten USC and lost to Washington, making the Wildcats 1-1 in the group. Assuming USC loses out, Washington would've defeated the Trojans twice and Northwestern once to go a perfect 3-0 and win the tiebreaker. Adding Minnesota to the group, which would need one win to enter the tiebreak, would result in a similar outcome.
What Is The Wildcats' Worst Possible Outcome?
It is still possible for Northwestern to end up as the No. 18 seed as the worst team in the Big Ten, but it would require a few things. Having lost to Northwestern last month, Penn State (11-17, 2-15 B1G) would need to finish with more wins outright than the 'Cats. That means that either Penn State must go 3-0 and Northwestern must go 1-3 or worse, or Penn State must go 2-1 and Northwestern must lose out.
A three-way tie between Northwestern, Oregon and Penn State could not result in the Wildcats finishing at the bottom of the Big Ten, as both the 'Cats and Ducks beat the Nittany Lions this season.
What Is The Most Likely Outcome?
According to ESPN Analytics, Northwestern is predicted to win just one of its final four games to end the season — Saturday against Oregon. That would put the 'Cats at 12-19 overall, including 4-16 in Big Ten play.
Two teams in the conference currently have four wins: Maryland and Rutgers, who play each other on Mar. 1. If Rutgers wins that game and Maryland loses out, Northwestern would actually win its tiebreaker over the Terps by virtue of the 'Cats' recent head-to-head victory on Feb. 18, likely making NU the No. 15 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
However, Maryland is projected to defeat Rutgers, via ESPN Analytics, and the Scarlet Knights own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Wildcats from their Jan. 11 overtime win. Rutgers also faces struggling Penn State to end the season, giving the Knights another opportunity to finish with more wins than the Wildcats.
The most likely scenario is that Northwestern enters the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 15 or No. 16 seed, depending on whether Rutgers or Maryland wins the upcoming matchup. Both seedings would set the Wildcats up for a first-round tournament game on Mar. 10.