Northwestern Rebuilds Confidence in Two Homestands Before Facing Butler

Northwestern had to buckle up — that's what the team demanded after dropping three consecutive games before returning home.

The Wildcats (7-4, 0-2 B1G) answered the call, regrouping with back-to-back home victories over Jackson State and Valparaiso at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Despite facing scrappy rallies from the Beacons on Tuesday, who cut the deficit to single digits before halftime, Northwestern maintained composure and secured a 16-point victory.

"Just to see 17 assists and seven turnovers, that's more Northwestern-like," coach Chris Collins said after the Valparaiso win. "I thought we made more progress tonight."

The two wins did more than the record: Northwestern showed higher discipline in ball-handling and maximized scoring opportunities through intense ball movement, enduring Valparaiso's scrappy defensive presence throughout the night.

With the nation's 43rd-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, the Wildcats scored 86 points against Valparaiso, marking their sixth game over 80 points this season. The continued dominance of Nick Martinelli, paired with Arrinten Page's emergence as a reliable secondary scorer, gives Collins confidence in his team's offensive firepower.

"That's the strength of our team," Collins said of the duo. "The basis of what we do is to play through those two guys. They're playing at a really high level."

Defense, however, remains an unfinished business. Martinelli, who stressed the importance of defense after the Ohio State defeat, acknowledged improvement on that end through the two-game homestand. Beyond securing wins, Northwestern outrebounded Jackson State 45-29 in a 40-point blowout. Though Valparaiso battled on the glass, where Northwestern won by just one board, the Wildcats forced the Beacons to 15 turnovers and blocked their shots four times.

"I think it has been a lot better. Especially at the end of games…the last eight minutes here, we were pretty locked in, pretty solid," Martinelli said. He added that closing-game defense plagued Northwestern in Big Ten losses last season, which ultimately kept them out of the NCAA Tournament.

These two non-conference wins, while not against marquee opponents, offered value. The Valparaiso game particularly tested Northwestern in the second half, an area where they faltered twice against Virginia and Oklahoma State. But the Wildcats sealed the win firmly this time. Collins said these games boosted confidence before travelling to Butler.

Saturday's matchup in Indianapolis marks a legitimate challenge. Butler (8-3, 1-1 Big East) ranks 54th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, just ahead of Northwestern's 56th. KenPom projects an 81-79 Butler victory, giving the Wildcats a 42% win probability.

The Bulldogs, seeking their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2018, grasped quality wins this season. They upset Virginia 80-73 at the Greenbrier Tip-Off — the same Virginia team that defeated Northwestern — and outlasted Providence in double overtime.

Two players need Northwestern's attention. Finley Bizjack leads Butler with 17.7 points per game and shoots 37.7% from three-point range, making him a perimeter threat. Michael Ajayai dominates inside, averaging a double-double with 16.5 points and 11.5 rebounds.

A Bulldogs’ strength that Northwestern needs to attach to is their offensive rebounding. Butler ranked 12th nationally with 14.8 offensive rebounds per game, creating second-chance opportunities that can swing close games. While Collins trusts his offense, rim protection and defensive rebounding will matter significantly on Saturday.

Though serving as a semi-home venue for Butler, Gainbridge Fieldhouse will also provide a tournament-like atmosphere that could pressure Northwestern's younger players. How experienced Martinelli and Page lead and stabilize their teammates in that environment will be another decisive factor that impacts the result.