The 'Cats need to turn their close losses into close wins in 2026.
As the end of the 2025 calendar year approaches, Northwestern is not in the position it needs to be in.
The Wildcats are 7-5 with one nonconference game remaining — all five losses coming in the last eight outings. Half of NU's games have been decided by five points or less, but Northwestern is just 2-4 in such contests.
If the 'Cats hadn't surrendered late leads to Virginia, Oklahoma State, Ohio State and Butler, they could be 11-1 ahead of Big Ten play and eyeing a return to the postseason. But the reality is that they did suffer those second-half collapses, they haven't been able to finish strong in close games and the season is at risk of going off the rails.
Could Northwestern still have a respectable season? Absolutely, but "respectable" is no longer the standard under Chris Collins. The Wildcats' head coach made it clear last spring that Northwestern's 17-16 record and 13th-place finish in the Big Ten were "disappointing," and that the injury-riddled campaign should be an outlier in the program's new era.
This is not an indictment of Collins or the direction of the program, which still seems to be trending positively. It is merely an acknowledgement that in this stage of the program, seasons are categorized by wins and losses — not moral victories — and the 2025-2026 season appears headed for the worse.
What that means is that the year will largely be judged on whether Northwestern reaches the NCAA Tournament or not. When you have an All-Big Ten and potentially All-American-caliber player like Nick Martinelli, you have to take advantage by making a run toward a Big Ten title and postseason berth, which Collins has now said is the standard.
Butler Bulldogs forward Michael Ajayi (5) rebounds the ball against Northwestern Wildcats guard Angelo Ciaravino (44) and Northwestern Wildcats forward Tre Singleton (8) on Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025, during a 2025 Indy Classic game between the Butler Bulldogs and the Northwestern Wildcats at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Bulldogs defeated the Wildcats, 61-58.The Wildcats rank No. 56 in the nation per KenPom, placing them as the highest five-loss team in college basketball. Strength of schedule is significant, of course, but winning games over tough opponents is more important. Northwestern is 0-5 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games already, which means the team's margin for error will be incredibly slim in Big Ten play.
It has been "the little things" that have caused Northwestern so much trouble in its close defeats this fall. Missed free throws, defensive breakdowns and allowing offensive rebounds have doomed the 'Cats in game after game, and NU cannot make those same mistakes against Big Ten competition.
Collins emphasized after the Ohio State loss that his team is not panicking, despite the rough start. There are plenty of reasons to believe that to be true and that a turnaround could be imminent. Northwestern is 353rd out of 365 Division I teams in KenPom's "luck" rating, and the Wildcats' fortunes in close games could certainly reverse course during the new year. Additionally, Collins is still figuring out his rotations at guard and NU's recent loss to Butler came without Martinelli, due to a concussion.
But January is nearing, and the 'Cats have not taken advantage of their nonconference schedule aside from a pair of wins over DePaul and South Carolina, which are currently Quad 3. Martinelli and Arrinten Page are the only players who can "get a bucket" at will when the team is locked in a close game, and Northwestern has found itself in these tight contests more often than anyone in the country.
The 'Cats host Howard on December 30 to close out their nonconference slate. After that, there are not many forgiving matchups on the Big Ten schedule.