Would the Wildcats have made an expanded postseason field?
An expansion of the College Football Playoff from 12 to 24 teams seems imminent, and it could very well prove to be detrimental for the sport.
However, the expansion could allow more opportunities for Northwestern to contend for a national title. The Wildcats' most recent realistic chance at a championship was in 1995 with a 10-1 regular season, but their early-season loss to Miami (Ohio) deprived them of the possibility. That was in the pre-Playoff era, and Northwestern has had a few teams in the 2000s that certainly would've been able to crack a 12-team or 24-team expanded field.
The Athletic's David Ubben went back to the start of the College Football Playoff in 2014 and determined that, had the field been 24 teams the entire time, 80 different programs would've reached the postseason. Ubben's selection guidelines included the conference champions from the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Pac-12, the top-ranked Group of Five champion and 18 at-large bids, essentially meaning Northwestern would've needed to be among the top ~23 teams in a season to be picked.
Four Northwestern teams would've made the College Football Playoff in the last 12 years under that selection process, assuming the dissolution of conference championship games with an expanded format. Let's take a look at each:
2015: No. 13 seed (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten)
Northwestern's first trip to the CFP would've been during its second year in effect. The Wildcats started 5-0, dropped ranked contests to No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Iowa and ended the regular season with another 5-0 stretch, including a win over No. 21 Wisconsin.
That team eventually lost to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl, 45-6. In an expanded bracket, though, Northwestern would've hosted a first-round College Football Playoff game as the No. 13 seed against No. 20 LSU.
2017: No. 21 seed (9-3, 7-2 Big Ten)
Northwestern began the year with a 2-3 record — with a pair of losses to top-10 teams — before rattling off seven consecutive wins to close the regular season. A 39-31 upset over No. 16 Michigan State headlined NU's third consecutive campaign with a winning record.
Instead of participating in the Music City Bowl and taking down Kentucky, 24-23, the 'Cats would've hit the road to face No. 12 seed UCF. The Knights were 13-0 that season under Scott Frost and claimed a National Championship.
2018: No. 21 seed (8-4, 8-1 Big Ten)
Dec 31, 2018; San Diego, CA, United States; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Clayton Thorson (18) throws a pass in the third quarter against the Utah Utes in the 2018 Holiday Bowl at SDCCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn ImagesThe 2018 Wildcats had one of the most polarizing winning seasons in program history. Northwestern was 0-3 in non-conference play and lost to a 4-8 Akron team, but nearly ran the table against Big Ten opponents. NU's lone conference loss in the regular season came against No. 14 Michigan.
NU eventually ended up losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, then beating Utah in the Holiday Bowl to wrap up the season with an abnormal 9-5 record. Without conference championships, though, Northwestern would've entered the Playoff as the No. 21 seed and taken the field against No. 12 seed Penn State.
2020: No. 14 seed (6-1, 6-1 Big Ten)
Northwestern boasted the nation's top defense in a season altered by the COVID-19 pandemic and led eventual national runner-up Ohio State at halftime of the 2020 Big Ten Championship. The Wildcats fell to Michigan State after a 5-0 start, ruling out any chance of an at-large bid to the Playoff.
Mike Hankwitz's defense was so dominant that it's very likely NU would've been ranked much higher than No. 14 in a full-length season. However, with just seven games on its resume, Northwestern's stellar roster wasn't able to make a convincing Playoff case without an upset over the Buckeyes. An expanded CFP would've given Northwestern a first-round home game against No. 19 seed Louisiana.
