Why Short-Term Transfer Pain Could be Northwestern's Long-Term Gain

When NBA teams aren't good enough, they tear the roster down to the studs and rebuild.

It's a little harder to do that in college basketball. If a coach strikes out on a recruit that isn't as good as anticipated, the school is still tied to that player with a four-year scholarship. Professional teams can trade athletes or cut them entirely to save cap space, while colleges are not afforded the same flexibility.

Chris Collins and Northwestern may have gotten as close to a "Get Out of Jail Free" card as you can get.

A lot of fuss has been made about Northwestern's eight outgoing transfers, and rightfully so. The Wildcats have only four projected returning players in Jake West, Angelo Ciaravino, Max Green and Phoenix Gill. And while NU's incoming recruiting class is talented, it still only contains Jayden Hodge and Symon Ghai.

Northwestern will now need to fill nine roster spots, but it's important to remember that the 2025-26 Wildcats' roster construction just... wasn't good. The team was dominated in the paint because of its lack of size and couldn't shoot threes, combining the worst of both worlds on the way to a 5-15 Big Ten record. Collins desperately needed to rebuild the roster, but with Nick Martinelli headed to the professional ranks, the offensive focal point of that rebuild was likely going to be a promising — but largely unproven —sophomore in West or Tre Singleton.

The losses of Singleton, Tyler Kropp and Cade Bennerman to the transfer portal, just one year after helping form a top-30 recruiting class, are undoubtedly massive. Collins should be facing pressure, but the reality is that not every transfer portal move was an indictment of the program. Sure, some of those were likely due to a lack of NIL resources or doubts about the program's direction. Collins has a say, though, and while he can't directly "cut" players, he can advise them that he doesn't expect to give them much playing time.

Northwestern's head coach knew that his roster wasn't good enough, and now he has the flexibility to shape his next roster how he sees fit. The 'Cats have always been built on experience and four-year players, but that era in college basketball is over. Michigan winning the National Championship on Monday night with five transfer starters — just two years after going 3-17 in Big Ten play — is proof of that.

Four-year superstars like Martinelli, Brooks Barnhizer and Boo Buie will still exist, but Northwestern cannot rely on that anymore. Just look at the experience that Northwestern had on its roster this past year. Martinelli is a developmental success story; outside of him, the 'Cats were lacking in upperclassman talent.

Collins bet on Justin Mullins as a sophomore transfer and struck out. Blake Smith and Gus Hurlburt were walk-ons and combined to play four minutes this year. Arrinten Page and Jayden Reid, despite having their moments, largely failed to live up to expectations as transfers. Jordan Clayton showed massive growth but was still a rotation player, not a cornerstone to build around.

And if any of those players had stayed, would they have been meaningful contributors on a Northwestern team that contends for a Big Ten title? Collins has been clear that his goal is to win a Big Ten Championship, not just strive for competitiveness and hope to sneak into the postseason. You could argue that the freshmen and potentially K.J. Windham are players who could've led the next great Wildcats team, but there's no way to know that for sure.

For every Martinelli in a recruiting class, there's a Luke Hunger. For every Buie, there's a Jared Jones. That's not to disrespect either Hunger or Jones, but not everybody is going to be a superstar. Singleton, Kropp and Windham showed promise, but development is rarely linear and eventually caps out. If Collins — who is around his players every day and sees them play far more than just gamedays — doesn't believe any of those players are future cornerstones, who's to tell him he shouldn't go out and look for one?

The disappointing Northwestern careers of Page, Reid and Mullins should not make Wildcat fans pessimistic about Collins' ability to land talent in the portal. Chase Audige, Ryan Langborg and pre-injury Jalen Leach were massive additions that helped bring the 'Cats to their winningest stretch in program history. The academic admissions process has also morphed to accommodate the transfer portal era, meaning NU is no longer restricted to signing graduate students and rising sophomores.

There should be no doubt that there are talented enough players in the portal to lead Northwestern back to the promised land. The question is whether Collins can find them, and whether the university has the resources to get them.