Critics howl, but data reveals Notre Dame's playoff resume outshines Alabama and Miami. Dive into the deeper metrics proving their worth.
Notre Dame remained ranked No. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, and as expected there was a firestorm about where the Irish were ranked. The whining about Miami's ranking compared to Notre Dame continued, but now we have to listen to SEC country and much of the national media whine and complain about the Irish being ranked ahead of the Crimson Tide.
What this shows isn't that the committee is flawed, or biased. What this constant complaining shows is that the vast majority of those who follow and cover the sport have no idea what actually goes into the rankings. All you hear is surface level responses like "ranked wins," and head-to-head. Those are certainly important data points, but the committee has never claimed the rankings are determined by such surface level criteria.
The response to committee chair Hunter Yurachek's comments also shows a shallow, surface level understanding of the rankings. You're asking a committee chair to summarize days of deliberation in one or two questions, and you think he's going to be able to full detail on it? No, he's going to give you the surface level answers that you want.
What is missing from much of the discussion is a lack of understanding of how the rankings actually work. Far too many arguments center around just one layer of the criteria. Doing so limits the ability to understand how the rankings work, which leads to these shallow conversations.
There are basically three levels to the playoff committees criteria, and right now the entire conversation is on just one level. There's the surface level resume (record, head-to-head, etc.), there's the data that dives deeper into how teams play and dominate, and then there's the eye test.
Let's take a look at the data and you'll see why the committee right it right. If anything, you'll see why Notre Dame has an argument for being even higher.
SOS ranking is calculated by Adam McClintock of Matrix AnalyticalIn this graph you can see some of the arguments that are in Notre Dame's favor and some of the data that is in Alabama's favor. Alabama has four wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 25, although that is an ever evolving data point. Alabama has one more "quality win" than Notre Dame, who has twice as many quality wins as Miami. It should be noted here that Miami has only two wins over teams that have a winning record.
Alabama has a tougher strength of schedule than Notre Dame, but it's relatively insignificant. Their strength of record is slightly better, both advantages for Alabama. Notre Dame has a better game control, which is a metric that analyzes in-game dominance.
You constantly hear and read "How can Notre Dame be ahead of Alabama, look at the ranked wins." Yes, Alabama has more ranked wins, but the assumption is that the committee only looks at those and says "Well, Alabama must be better." The committee clearly thinks highly of Pittsburgh and Navy as well, as both teams were ranked in the two previous weeks. Navy was in the first batch of rankings and Pittsburgh was in the first two rankings, until they lost to Notre Dame.
Is beating Missouri and Tennessee more impressive than Navy and Pittsburgh? On the surface, yes. But it's not that simple. How you win those games matters as well. Alabama got out-gained by Tennessee (410-373) and were tied in yards with Missouri (325-325). Notre Dame out-gained Navy by a 502-228 margin and Pittsburgh by a 387-219 margin. They were far more dominant in those wins, and that factors into the data.
The argument about losses is also a bit absurd. I keep hearing the complaint that the committee puts more on the losses than the wins. That's not accurate, but even if it was an accurate portrayal why is that any less an error than pretending losses somehow mean a lot less, or should be dismissed. What is the proper level of balance that comes from a team who has better wins but significantly worst losses? Why do wins get more credit than losses?
Yes, Notre Dame has better losses than both Miami and Alabama. That's true both from a who they lost to and how. That has to matter as well.
Alabama didn't just lose to Florida State, they got dominated by Florida State. They got out-gained 382-341, and FSU held a 6.1 to 4.7 yards per play average. Alabama was down 24-7 at one point and was only within a touchdown in the second half for one possession. As soon as the Tide made it 24-17 in the fourth quarter, FSU responded with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive on the ensuing possession.
Are we supposed to pretend that game didn't happen? What's even more ironic, the same people wanting to discount that loss for being in week one are the same people obsessing over Miami's 3-point win over Notre Dame. Both losses matter and neither should be dismissed, but in context Alabama's loss in week one was far, far worse than either of Notre Dame's losses.
The notion that Alabama's schedule is somehow so superior that it should discount that loss isn't supported by the data. While many point to ESPN's strength of schedule metrics, the reality is they are irrelevant, as they aren't what the committee uses. The distance in strength of schedule isn't nearly as great between Notre Dame and Alabama. The gap there is actually closer than the gap between Notre Dame and Miami's strength of schedule.
While Alabama has the better strength of record - at least according to ESPN - Notre Dame's game control is better than Oklahoma, Miami and Alabama. In fact, Alabama has the lowest game control of these four teams.
An objective look at the first layer of the data has to be willing to admit that it looks better for Alabama. But as I've stated, there are more layers, so let's dive into those layers.
Let's look at some more data:
If you're whining about Alabama and Miami being behind Notre Dame you have to at least have enough intellectual curiosity to ask "Why do all the polls and all the computer models have Notre Dame ahead of Alabama and Miami?"
The committee looks at a number of data points to determine the quality of a team beyond just "the schedule." How do you perform against that schedule? They look at relative scoring numbers, relative yards, points per play, points per yard and other data metrics to determine the quality of a team. Fortunately, the committee looks beyond the surface of just who you play, but ALSO how you play.
The committee doesn't look at the computer models I provided above, but they are there for context. There's a reason why Notre Dame is ahead of Alabama in four of the five models provided here.
According to this article by John Brice, relative scoring offense and defense, relative total offense and defense, points per play and points per yard are all metrics they utilize to evaluate the quality of the teams. Contrary to popular belief, this isn't just about finding the 12 best resumes, it's about gettin the 12 best teams. That's obviously partly about the surface level resume, it's also about how dominant a team is. That's what this data is meant to convey.
As I stated above, is Alabama beating the No. 23 team in the country (Missouri) by three points really show they are better than Notre Dame, who beat the No. 26 or No. 30 teams (the range of Navy and Pittsburgh) by 39 or 22 points? So your schedule allows you to play a team ranked slightly higher, which is important, but how much better did you perform in that game than another team did against a similar - albeit slightly lower ranked - opponent?
The data above shows that Notre Dame is better on offense and defense than Alabama. It shows that while Miami has a slightly better defense, Notre Dame has a significantly better offense on the season. The same is true for Notre Dame compared to Oklahoma, and its this data that shows why Notre Dame is ranked ahead of both Alabama and Miami. Yes, Alabama has better wins, but the wins aren't significantly better on paper. The dominance that Notre Dame showed in its wins is also significant, and plays a huge factor into why the Irish are ranked ahead.
Again, there's a reason all the human rankings and computer rankings have Notre Dame ranked higher. You can get as emotional about it as you want, but if you are trying to have an honest discussion you can't ignore all the committee's criteria. An honest discussion doesn't try to pretend certain aspects of the resume that fit your agenda is more important than other parts that don't.
There's a final layer to this, and it's the eye test. Notre Dame is one of the hottest teams in college football. I can't stand lazy narratives about how week one or week two games don't matter, so I'm not going to use that to defend the fact Notre Dame lost its first two games. Yes, they are a way better team now, but you have to include the entire season. That's why Notre Dame doesn't deserve a Top 5 ranking, despite the fact a case could be made they are playing like a Top 5 team, and despite the fact many of the computer models - including both used at ESPN - view them as a Top 5 team.
The eye test makes this debate incredibly easy, Notre Dame should not only be ranked ahead of Alabama and Miami, they should be ranked ahead of Oklahoma based on eye test as well. But eye test shouldn't be any more of a trump card than head to head, or Top 25 wins. It's a part of the conversation, which is why right now No. 8 is the highest I would argue Notre Dame should be ranked in week 13. But it also shouldn't be ignored by others who have a clear anti-Notre Dame agenda, or a pro-Alabama or pro-Miami agenda.
All three layers of the evaluation deserve discussion, and it's hard to argue for Notre Dame being below Miami or Alabama when you take the entire data sets into the conversation. It's why College Football Nerds game simulations have Notre Dame 33.1-24.3 against Alabama, 27.1-23.7 against Miami, 27.7-18.6 against Oklahoma, 31.6-24.4 against Oregon, 39.2-26.6 against Ole Miss, 27.3-23.6 against Texas Tech, 35.3-29.0 against Georgia and 35.6-24.0 against Texas A&M.
When you remove emotion and you look at the data, you look at the projections, you look at the models, it tells you exactly what your eyes tell you ..... Notre Dame is a better team than Alabama and Miami.
Offense comparisons
Defense Comparisons———————
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