Irish Breakdown analysts break down the crucial Notre Dame vs. Pitt showdown, predicting a dominant performance fueled by offense and defense.
The 9th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2) head to the Steel City this weekend to take on the 22nd-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2) in the latest installment of this long-time rivalry. This is a huge game for Notre Dame, who gets its last chance to really make a big impression on the College Football Playoff committee.
Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pa.)
Date: Saturday - November 15
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Network: ABC
Line: Notre Dame -12.5, O/U: 55.5
The Irish Breakdown team has made its predictions for this big matchup:
BRYAN DRISKELL, OWNER
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Pittsburgh 13
There is a chance for rain on Saturday, which could make an already maligned Acrisure Stadium playing surface tougher to play on. Hopefully the weather doesn't impact the game, but the Irish will need to be prepared for some rough conditions. That is partly why I have this as a bit of a lower scoring game than some others.
Notre Dame's run game has been inconsistent this season but this offense is still fueled by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. They will need the offensive line to be physical, disciplined and get a body on a body. If they can do that the offense should be able to do enough to maintain some balance. Protecting CJ Carr is important for the line as well. That is the key for Notre Dame, protect Carr and give just something in the run game. If they can do that I fully expect Carr to have a big game throwing the football.
Defensively, Notre Dame has been on fire for over a month, holding its last six opponents to just 11.8 points per game. Pitt has a very good offense, but Notre Dame faced the No. 7, No. 21 and three other Top 50 scoring offenses during that stretch. Four of those six opponents were held to 10 points or less. At the heart of the success has been outstanding play from the defensive line, and I expect that unit to once again dominate action in this game. Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel has been impressive in his five starts, but he hasn't faced a defense like the one he will see on Saturday.
A dominant defensive line, a secondary that is elite at forcing turnovers, and playmakers on offense are why the Irish will roll in this matchup.
VINCE DEDARIO, FOOTBALL ANALYST
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Pittsburgh 14
First, on offense I like how guys like Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are going to make big splashes. Love’s blazing speed and ability to break into the open field will give Notre Dame chunk plays, and Price’s tough inside running will wear down Pittsburgh’s front-seven. Meanwhile on the receiving end, the combo of Malachi Fields and Jordan Faison gives Notre Dame an upgraded play-maker duo that can consistently stretch the field. Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t shown the kind of disciplined containment that Notre Dame’s offense will demand. So I’m expecting the Irish to jump out early, build a lead, and cruise to a 45-14 type score.
Defensively, Notre Dame’s going to dominate the line of scrimmage. Guys like Drayk Bowen and Josh Burnham have been sturdy in the trenches and will have Pittsburgh’s offense on its back foot all game. The Panthers are going to struggle to sustain drives when Notre Dame’s front-seven is banging and the secondary is keyed in. Having Christian Gray back healthy will be a huge boost to the Irish secondary. When one unit plays that way, you get the two-score lead by half time, then the third quarter becomes the “just finish it” period. That’s how you end up with a comfortable 45-14 win.
TREVOR TROWBRIDGE, STAFF WRITER
Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Pittsburgh 17
Since Arkansas, we've been waiting to see this offense fire on all cylinders, that happens this weekend against Pitt. The Panthers have a stout run defense and they're significantly more talented than the unit head coach Marcus Freeman faced in 2023 when the Irish won 58-7. That being said, Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-4 against Notre Dame and only one of those losses was by one possession (2018).
Quarterback CJ Carr is set up to have a field day against this aggressive defense. This is a week where they'll have to utilize the pass to soften the box to get Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price going. Boundary receiver Malachi Fields will have to win his matchup against Rashad Battle and tight end Eli Raridon will have his opportunities for big plays as well. Defensively, there's still a heavy emphasis on shutting down the run. The pass defense will have its biggest test remaining in the regular season, if they put it all together on Saturday, Pitt will struggle to move the football.
I think this game will be all Notre Dame from the jump, similar to the Arkansas game. The Irish will take a hefty lead into halftime, maybe 28-10. They've been an extremely dominant second half team and from Arkansas to Navy they've outscored their opponents 115-14 in the final two quarters; that continues Saturday afternoon. Give me the Irish by 28.
ANDREW McDONOUGH, IB CONTRIBUTOR
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Pittsburgh 16
The Fighting Irish face their biggest remaining test this season on Saturday at Pittsburgh. Despite the bizarre comments made by Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi at his press conference this week, the Panthers will be ready to play. Pitt is one of the hottest teams in the country since Narduzzi turned the reins over to true freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback and the Panthers will be fired up, hosting College Gameday this weekend for the first time in two decades.
However, Notre Dame will be showing up fired up and ready to play too - in addition to having a CFP berth on the line, the Irish will be motivated to prove the chorus of doubters wrong. Similar to Boston College and Navy, Pitt is going to focus on limiting the Notre Dame rushing attack and forcing the Fighting Irish offense to play behind the sticks and move the ball through the air. The Panthers will likely have some success in that area, given they rank 3rd in the nation in rush defense, surrendering only 80.1 YPG, and the Irish offensive line has been inconsistent at times in the run game.
Against the best rushing attack they faced to this point in the season, the Panthers held Louisville to just 53 rushing yards on 34 carries, with star Cardinal RB Isaac Brown held to 20 yards on 14 carries. However, like in the loss to the Cardinals where Ptt was shredded through the air, Notre Dame will use CJ Carr to get the offense going and force Pitt to lighten the box. Expect Mike Denbrock to use the passing game to get the ball in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price's hands, especially in the first half when Pitt sells out to stop the run. With Carr rolling against the nation's 96th-ranked pass defense, the Irish will be able to put points on the board and hit a couple back-breaking explosive runs in the second half.
On the other side of the ball, as long as the Notre Dame secondary limits the big play and forces Pitt to have to drive the ball to score, the Irish defense will be able to keep the points down and force Heintschel into mistakes. He has thrown 5 interceptions in his 5 starts and now faces an Irish defense that ranks 7th in the nation in turnover margin at +10 and is third in the nation with 16 interceptions. The more plays that Pitt needs to run to move the ball, the more opportunity there is for mistakes. In addition to Heintschel's penchant for turning the ball over, the Panthers rank 121st in the country allowing 2.89 sacks per game. After securing just a single sack in the first 2 games, the Fighting Irish have racked up 23 sacks during the 7-game winning streak and now rank 17th in the nation in sacks per game.
Oh, and in one additional bonus for Notre Dame fans, freshman K Eric Schmidt will drill his first field goal of the season.
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