As quickly as it came, the 2025 college football regular season has come to a close, and before one of the final playoff rankings are released tomorrow, we wanted to take a look at the teams that are, or are perceived to be, on the bubble of making the second 12-team college football playoffs. We're going to look at Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma, Miami, BYU and Ole Miss and talk through what's working in their favor and what's working against their final push to the playoffs. Let's first take a look at the Miami Hurricanes who are sitting at 10-2 on the season, ranked 12th by the playoff committee and are looking to clinch their first playoff berth in program history.
What's Working In Their Favor?
Let's just get this out of the way now, they have the head to head over Notre Dame. That's been a major talking point in favor of Miami and it's an extremely valid point. It's one of the better wins from this college football regular season and the Hurricane's got the victory 27-24 in week one. They won their first five games of the season including a dominant 49-12 victory over South Florida in week three, beat Florida at home 26-7 and beat Florida State in their first road game of the season 28-22. They also ended their season on a four-game win streak beating Syracuse by 28, NC State by 34, Virginia Tech on the road by 17 and Pittsburgh on the road by 31.
They have one of the youngest offensive standouts in the country in wide receiver Malachi Toney who's a Bonafede 1st-team Freshman All-American after posting an 84 reception, 970 yard, seven touchdown true freshman season. The Hurricanes rank 7th in ESPN's FPI, 11th in the FEI and 6th in the Sagarin. Defensively, they have one of the better defensive lines in the entire country headlined by standout Rueben Bain who has been getting a lot of NFL Draft buzz. They've held five of their last six opponents to 17 points or less.
What's Working Against Them?
As strong of a head to head win that they have over Notre Dame, that's really the only impressive thing about their resume. They have a couple of quality wins over USF, NC State and now Pitt, but the rest of the resume simply isn't that strong. On top of that, their two losses are near or at the bottom of the other teams fighting for a playoff spot outside of Alabama. Ole Miss lost to Georgia, Notre Dame lost to Texas A&M and Miami, Georgia lost to Alabama, Texas A&M lost to Texas, Oregon lost to Indiana and BYU lost to Texas Tech. Miami lost to unranked Louisville at home and unranked SMU on the road within three weeks.
As much as the committee looks at head to head and who you beat, they also look at who you lost to - think back to Alabama last season. Stat padding is also doesn't carry a heavy weight with the committee. Throwing a touchdown pass with 0:41 left on the clock with your first team offense against Pitt and throwing a touchdown pass with 0:20 left on the clock with your first team offense against Virginia Tech doesn't help some of their metrics the way some may think that it might.
My Thoughts: There's a scenario where Miami makes the playoffs, but it's completely out of their hands currently. Yes, they have the head to head win over Notre Dame, but in my opinion, the strength of their resume ends there. If Alabama and BYU both lose in their conference championship games this weekend, that will pave a nice road for Miami to make it into one of the at-large spots and be on the road in the playoffs. Their argument against Notre Dame carries very little weight with me. There are two teams ranked between the Hurricanes and the Irish that they, and the ACC, should be significantly more concerned with.
Miami's odds of making the playoffs aren't unlikely because of favoritism to Notre Dame, it's because they themselves didn't handle business on October 17 and November 1st. Miami is at risk of not making the playoffs because a team from their own conference will lock up either the 11th or 12th spot. Do I personally think they're one of the best 12 teams in the country? Sure, there's an argument to be made. Do I think they handled business to put themselves in a position to deserve a spot in the playoffs? Potentially at best.
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