Vegas has set two contradictory lines for Ohio State's 2026 season.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are widely regarded as the best team in college football heading into the 2026 season. They have a lot of the tools that you want in an elite team, but they pair that up with a ton of question marks as well.
Ohio State lost a total of 11 players to the 2026 NFL Draft and is going to have to fill a ton of holes to fill, but there is no reason to believe that the new players, whether developmental or transfer guys, will step in and fill those shoes.
The interesting part is that the people in the know in Vegas have set two contradictory lines.
As it stands right now in the middle of May, the Buckeyes have the shortest odds to get back to and win the National Championship. Right now, they are +550 to earn the title, while trailing right behind them is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who are +700 to win the whole thing.
The interesting part is that Ohio State's over/under line is just 9.5 wins. On a 12-game schedule, if they go under that 9.5, they will be on the outside looking in the playoffs. If they get over that, at the very worst, they will be 10-2, and that will likely get them into the mix in the playoffs, just as they were in 2024.
These two values do not connect to each other, and they tell a completely opposite story to each other.
Now, I do think that their win total is set properly. 9.5 wins is the right watermark for the Buckeyes, and it isn't because of their skill; it is primarily because of the strength of their schedule.
On the docket for the Buckeyes are three Top-10 teams in the country: Texas, Indiana, and Oregon. There is a trip out west to USC, a trip to Iowa, and a host of Illinois on their schedule. Then, as they always do, they have the Michigan Wolverines to close out the campaign.
From an on-field perspective, the Buckeyes should be pretty solid. They return the core of their offense in the quarterback, two running backs, the top offensive linemen, and the best player, Jeremiah Smith.
The question marks on offense are filled in with a good mix of transfers and development guys.
On defense, the Buckeyes are again reloading on their defensive line and at their linebacker position. They are also replacing a couple of their key secondary players.
It is going to take some time for them to mesh and develop early in the season. That may lead to a couple of losses along the way. The level is three losses. If they get to that third loss, the Playoffs seem out of the question. If they get to 10 wins, the National Championship is well within their reach.
2026 is going to be incredible theater from start to finish.
Buckeye Roundtable also offers a fan community and message board. We’d love to have you join us to talk all things Ohio State Buckeyes. Click the “Join” button at the top of the page to join our community for free.
Odds given by FanDuel Sportsbook
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER.
