I Think ESPN's FPI Is Too Low on Oklahoma State

One thing immediately stood out when ESPN released its Football Power Index win probabilities for Oklahoma State's 2026 schedule.

The Cowboys aren't favored nearly as often as I expected.

I actually agree with a few of the projections.

Oregon at 9.2%?

Fair.

The Ducks are one of the nation's elite programs.

Murray State at 99.0%?

No argument there.

Tulsa at 78.5%?

That also feels about right.

After that, though, I think ESPN is underselling Oklahoma State.

The biggest surprise to me is Houston.

ESPN gives the Cowboys just a 32.1% chance to win on the road.

That's one of the lowest win probabilities on the entire schedule.

I think that's too pessimistic.

The Cowboys have completely rebuilt the roster.

Eric Morris brought in 87 newcomers.

Drew Mestemaker already knows the offense.

Caleb Hawkins arrives after leading the FBS in rushing grade while rushing for more than 1,400 yards and 25 touchdowns.

This simply isn't the same team that went 1-11 a season ago.

The same applies to Kansas State (38.6%) and Arizona State (37.4%).

Are those difficult road games?

Absolutely.

Would I make Oklahoma State the favorite?

Probably not.

I'd certainly give the Cowboys better than roughly a one-in-three chance in both contests though.

The projection that really caught my eye? Texas Tech.

Just a 14.2% chance?

I understand the Red Raiders have high expectations entering the season, but if Oklahoma State is truly one of the Big 12's biggest turnaround candidates, that number feels extremely low especially with no Brendan Sorsby in the picture at quarterback. 

Every season, teams outperform preseason projections.

Others fall short.

That's why the games are played.

That's exactly why I believe Oklahoma State is one of the toughest teams in the country to project. National models naturally lean on returning production and recent results, however the Cowboys have undergone one of the most dramatic roster overhauls in college football. With 87 newcomers and an entirely new coaching staff, there simply isn't much historical data that accurately reflects what this team could become.

I've said throughout the offseason that Oklahoma State is one of my favorite turnaround picks in the Big 12. If that prediction proves correct, several of these win probabilities will look far too conservative by the end of the season. The Cowboys don't have to win every toss-up game, but they do need to consistently outperform the expectations attached to last year's 1-11 record.

If I had to make one prediction today, I think Oklahoma State finishes with more wins than ESPN's FPI expects.

The Football Power Index is a valuable tool, but it's still just a projection.

What makes Oklahoma State different is that almost nothing about this roster resembles last year's team.

That's why I think FPI is struggling to evaluate the Cowboys.

It's trying to project a team we've never actually seen.

Which is exactly why I believe Oklahoma State has a chance to surprise people in 2026.