Jon Rothstein has Oklahoma State seventh in his Big 12 preseason rankings, two spots higher than Jeff Goodman. I think Rothstein's projection is closer to reality because Steve Lutz has built a roster capable of exceeding expectations and making a legitimate NCAA Tournament push.
Which preseason ranking is closer to where Oklahoma State will finish in the Big 12?
Preseason rankings are meant to spark debate.
That's exactly what happened when CBS Sports college basketball analyst Jon Rothstein released his Big 12 preseason power rankings, placing Oklahoma State seventh in the conference.
Just days earlier, Jeff Goodman had the Cowboys ninth.
Neither ranking is unreasonable.
However, if I had to choose which one is closer to where Oklahoma State will actually finish, I'm siding with Rothstein.
I think seventh is a better reflection of what Steve Lutz has built—and where this program is headed.
Seventh Feels Like the Right Starting Point
Nobody is arguing Oklahoma State belongs at the top of the conference entering the season.
Arizona, Houston and Iowa State have earned that respect.
Seventh feels like a fair spot for a team that has quietly put together one of the more intriguing rosters in the Big 12.
Steve Lutz isn't starting from scratch anymore.
He's building on the momentum he's already created and this offseason was about finding players who fit his system rather than simply adding talent.
That's an important distinction.
Steve Lutz Has Earned the Benefit of the Doubt
One reason I'm leaning toward Rothstein's ranking is because of Steve Lutz himself.
Everywhere he's coached, he's won quickly.
He's built a reputation for developing chemistry, maximizing transfer portal additions and getting teams to play with relentless energy.
That doesn't guarantee Oklahoma State finishes seventh—or higher—but it gives me confidence this roster will outperform what many expect.
Sometimes preseason rankings should reflect coaching as much as talent.
Lutz has earned that respect.
The Difference Between Seventh and Ninth Matters
On paper, moving up two spots doesn't seem significant.
In the Big 12, it can be the difference between comfortably sitting in the NCAA Tournament field and spending February fighting to stay on the bubble.
That's why I believe seventh better represents Oklahoma State's outlook.
The Cowboys have enough talent to compete with anyone on a given night.
If they protect home court and steal a few road wins, finishing in the upper half of the conference is absolutely realistic.
It Also Matches the National Narrative
Another reason Rothstein's ranking stands out is because it aligns with what other national analysts are saying.
Joe Lunardi already has Oklahoma State projected in his way-too-early NCAA Tournament field.
Those expectations fit together.
A team projected to make the NCAA Tournament shouldn't be viewed as one of the bottom teams in its conference.
Seventh feels much more consistent with the growing belief that Oklahoma State is on the rise under Steve Lutz.
Final Thoughts
Do I think Oklahoma State is ready to challenge Arizona or Houston for the Big 12 title?
Not yet.
I do believe this program has taken another step forward.
Steve Lutz has assembled a roster capable of competing with anyone in the middle of the conference, and I think Jon Rothstein's ranking reflects that better than Jeff Goodman's.
Preseason rankings are only predictions.
However, if Oklahoma State lives up to its potential, don't be surprised if the Cowboys finish much closer to seventh than ninth.
Jeff Goodman ranked Oklahoma State where it is today.
Jon Rothstein ranked Oklahoma State where it could be by March.
