New Orleans Pelicans scout Jarrett Sutton analyzes the Oklahoma State Men's Basketball's slim March Madness chances. Can the Big 12's strength propel Oklahoma State despite their bubble status?
The Oklahoma State Cowboys men's basketball team is riding momentum after a signature victory, but their NCAA Tournament fate remains precarious as the 2025-26 season enters its critical February stretch.
As of February 6, 2026, the Cowboys stand at 16-6 overall and 4-5 in Big 12 play, fresh off a thrilling 99-92 upset over No. 16 BYU on February 4 at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Anthony Roy led the charge with a season-high 30 points, helping OSU overcome a strong performance from BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa and secure their first true Quad 1 win of the campaign.
This breakthrough win has boosted Oklahoma State's profile, yet bracket projections keep them on the bubble. ESPN's Joe Lunardi lists the Cowboys as the highest-ranked Big 12 team among the First Four Out, just outside the projected field despite seven anticipated Big 12 bids. TCU and Baylor trail them among the Next Four Out.
The Big 12's depth—led by undefeated No. 1 Arizona (22-0, 9-0 in conference), Houston (20-2, 8-1), Iowa State, and Kansas—has created a gauntlet where top teams dominate, leaving little margin for error for bubble squads like OSU.
This week on The Jones Report, host Tyler Jones (publisher of Sooners Roundtable) teamed up with Thomas Bridges (editor of OkState Roundtable) to dissect the latest SEC and Big 12 headlines. Joining them was Jarrett Sutton, a scout for the New Orleans Pelicans and former Missouri Tiger with extensive experience evaluating talent from both leagues. Sutton, who has scouted prospects across college basketball, offered an informed perspective on the Cowboys' March Madness prospects amid the conference's rising dominance.
Sutton sees a realistic, albeit narrow, path for Oklahoma State to punch their ticket. He drew parallels to last year's historically strong SEC, which earned widespread respect and multiple bids: “I think there’s two ways to look at it: You look at last year and there was so much chatter with the SEC and how good that league was... It was the respect that league had that got almost every team in the tournament.”
He believes the Big 12 is emerging similarly as the nation's premier league, with multiple legitimate national championship contenders. “I do think they are starting to emerge as the best league in college basketball,” Sutton said.
“The Big 12 there’s multiple teams that have a chance to win a national championship. I’m curious how that will work with the committee in terms of how much respect they do give the league and if that does help these teams in terms of getting in.”
The next 2-3 weeks will be decisive, Sutton emphasized: “It’s really going to be the next two to three weeks where things get ironed out. That’s what’s fun about this current timeline is some things will change pretty quickly. There’s always every year it happens where a team is kind of in the middle of the pack lurking or not being talked about, and then all of a sudden they play their best brand of ball in February, and then they’re in a different conversation.”
Oklahoma State's schedule offers a mix of high-stakes challenges and opportunities. Their toughest immediate test comes Saturday against undefeated No. 1 Arizona in Tucson—a road game against the conference leader.
After that, the slate lightens somewhat: just two more ranked opponents remain, including No. 11 Kansas at home on February 18 and No. 8 Houston in the regular-season finale on March 7 at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Strong showings in these games, combined with the Big 12's overall strength, could propel OSU into the conversation.
Could the Cowboys emerge as that late-rising team Sutton described? With momentum from the BYU upset and a favorable stretch ahead, optimism is building in Stillwater.
The full discussion, featuring Sutton's insights alongside breakdowns of SEC and Big 12 storylines, is available now on The Jones Report via Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and all major platforms.
As March approaches, Oklahoma State's fate could hinge on capitalizing on this pivotal window.