Facing ‘The Next Four Out’, “Who the hell is giving up…” at Oklahoma State?
STILLWATER, Okla. — The Oklahoma State Cowboys (16-9, 4-8 Big 12) are set to host the No. 8 Kansas Jayhawks (19-6, 9-3 Big 12) on Wednesday, February 18, at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. CST, with the game streaming on Peacock.
Coming off a heartbreaking 95-92 overtime loss to TCU, the Cowboys find themselves in a precarious position, clinging to fading NCAA Tournament hopes.
An upset victory over the powerhouse Jayhawks could breathe new life into their campaign, but anything short of that might seal their fate outside the Big Dance.
OSU’s tournament aspirations are hanging by a thread. In ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s latest update, shared via a tweet on February 17 (https://x.com/ESPNLunardi/status/2023802902826168384?s=20), the Cowboys are listed in the “Next Four Out” category, alongside Baylor, Stanford, and Boise State. This positions them essentially as one of the final teams missing the cut—roughly the sixth to eighth out, depending on how you count the “First Four Out” group ahead of them.
With no room for error, beating Kansas would add a crucial Quad 1 win to their resume, potentially vaulting them back into the conversation.
As Lunardi’s projection highlights, the bubble is crowded, and OSU’s 6-3 Quad 2 record took a hit with the TCU defeat.
The road ahead is daunting, with six regular-season games remaining before the Big 12 Tournament.
After Kansas, the Cowboys face Colorado on the road (a potential Quad 1 if the Buffaloes climb into the NET Top 75 from their current No. 79), followed by home games against West Virginia and Texas Tech, a road trip to Baylor, and a finale at UCF.
Four of these are confirmed Quad 1 opportunities, but securing wins will be tough in the rugged Big 12.
OSU has struggled with consistency, trailing for over 43 minutes in the TCU game and failing to lead at all.
As one analyst noted after a recent road loss to Arizona State, “Oklahoma State’s inconsistency could cost Cowboys NCAA Tournament spot,” emphasizing their inability to close out winnable games.
Statistically, OSU boasts a potent offense, averaging 84.7 points per game (27th nationally), led by senior guard Anthony Roy’s 17.6 points on 44.3% shooting and junior forward Parsa Fallah’s 15.1 points and 5.8 rebounds.
Freshman guard Jaylen Curry adds 11.2 points and 3.6 assists off the bench, providing sparks like his late-game heroics against TCU (12 points, four assists, two steals).
Defensively, however, they’ve been porous, allowing 81.3 points per contest (343rd nationally), which could spell trouble against Kansas.
The Jayhawks, ranked eighth in the AP Poll, counter with a balanced attack averaging 77.1 points while holding opponents to 68.0 (41st nationally).
Freshman forward Flory Bidunga dominates inside with 14.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game on 67.0% shooting.
Guard Darryn Peterson leads scoring at 19.8 points, shooting 47.9% overall and 41.3% from three, while forward Bryson Tiller contributes 11.2 points and 6.7 rebounds.
Kansas excels in rebounding (38.8 per game) and blocks (6.1), exploiting weaknesses like OSU’s recent rebounding lapses.
To pull off the upset, the Cowboys must prioritize interior defense to neutralize Bidunga, force turnovers (Kansas averages 10.5), and capitalize on their 34.7% three-point shooting.
Rebounding will be key, OSU was outrebounded 42-37 by TCU, and they need to avoid the slow starts that plagued them in recent losses.
Head coach Steve Lutz remains defiant amid the inability to close out games and with missing the NCAA Tournament a more than likely possibility.
After the TCU overtime thriller, he fired back at doubters: “Who the hell is giving up? Nobody should be giving up. We have a chance to still go to the NCAA Tournament… You beat Kansas, you’re right back where you need to be… I don’t see anybody that’s quitting. I don’t see anybody that’s hanging their head around here. That’s not how things work at Oklahoma State. You gotta be tough. This league, it ain’t for the weak… And we’re not weak, and we’re not soft.”
Fallah echoed Lutz’s comments saying, “It’s hard, man. Losing games like that that we needed to win, it really is hard. But, I refuse to give up on this team… We’re not gonna give up, but it’s tough.”
Lutz has also stressed the conference’s brutality stating “This is not a two-hand-touch league. This is a tackle football league. If you’re not going to fight and you’re not going to scrap and you’re not going to rebound, you got no shot.”
A win could reignite OSU’s tournament path, but a loss might relegate them to hoping for a deep Big 12 Tournament run.
Can the Cowboys generate their own kind of pre-tournament Cinderella type run to even get to the tournament? Mm, we’ll find out Wednesday evening.
Player to Watch: Parsa Fallah – The junior forward exploded for 27 points (10-of-13 shooting) and six rebounds against TCU, including a game-tying putback to force overtime.
His dominance in the post (15.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG) will be crucial against Bidunga’s interior presence, and if Fallah replicates that fire, he could be the X-factor in sparking an upset.