SBNation Bracketologist Chris Dobbertean of BloggingTheBracket.com tells The Jones Report that the door is still open for Oklahoma State to make the NCAA Tournament, ahead of Saturday's game against Cincinnati
Is all of Oklahoma State’s hope for a NCCA Tournament bid lost?
SBNation Bracketologist Chris Dobbertean of BloggingTheBracket.com talks with Tyler Jones of the The Jones Report to discuss if there’s still room for the Pokes to “go dancing”, among other Big 12 hopefuls for a March Madness invite.
For Oklahoma State to make the NCAA Tournament, they’ll need to pull off maybe the unthinkable, that being winning out from here.
The season began with promise for OSU, blending non-conference dominance with early Big 12 surprises.
The Cowboys rattled off wins against mid-majors like Bethune-Cookman (103-77) and Cal State Fullerton, building a 14-4 record by mid-January .
Their Quad 1 victories stood out: a home upset of No. 16 BYU on February 4 (99-92), where Roy exploded for 30 points, and earlier triumphs over UCF and Texas A&M. These signature wins propelled OSU into bracket conversations at first.
Then came the skid that derailed everything. Starting February 7, OSU endured a brutal five-game losing streak, exposing defensive problems and road woes.
It began with a 84-47 blowout at No. 1 Arizona, followed by an 85-76 defeat at Arizona State, a 95-92 overtime heartbreaker to TCU, an 81-69 home loss to No. 8 Kansas, and an 83-69 setback at Colorado on February 21.
During this stretch, the Cowboys allowed opponents to shoot 48% from the field while committing turnovers at a 15% clip.
“We dug ourselves a hole early, and while I’m proud of how we fought back, we just couldn’t get over the hump,” Lutz said after the Kansas loss.
The streak dropped OSU to 16-11 and out of most bracketologies, with ESPN’s Bubble Watch omitting them from “locks” or “should be in” categories, instead lumping them into the “work to do” tier.
On3’s projections show them firmly on the outside looking in, behind bubble teams like UCF and Missouri.
To salvage an at-large bid, OSU must win their final three regular-season games for a 20-11 finish and 8-10 in the Big 12.
First up? February 28 at Cincinnati (2:00 p.m. ET, CBSSN), a bubble rival with 12% at-large odds per ESPN’s consensus model.
Then, March 3 at UCF (6:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+), another Quad 1 opportunity against a projected No. 9 seed.
Finally, March 7 vs. Houston (11:00 a.m. ET, CBS), a showdown with a No. 2 seed lock that could be a resume-booster.
“The team needs to win its last four regular-season games to have any chance at an at-large bid,” CBS Sports emphasized before the WVU game.
Even with a sweep, OSU’s at-large hopes remain faint. The make or break here for Oklahoma State? A deep run in the Big 12 Tournament (March 10-14, Kansas City). As a likely No. 10-12 seed, they’ll need to win multiple games, perhaps reaching the semifinals or final, to pad their resume with Quad 1 victories.
Most experts agree outright winning the tournament for the auto-bid is their safest path, given the conference’s depth (projected 7-8 bids) and OSU’s bad losses (e.g., Quad 3 defeats to Arizona State), but that won’t be an easy task.