Despite size concerns and injury-impacted season, Kiper praises Mateer's "magical" athleticism; Sooners star faces key decision on declaring early or returning for title chase
As Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer contemplates his next chapter after a rollercoaster 2025 season that ended with a first-round College Football Playoff loss to Alabama on December 19, 2025, he has garnered strong support from ESPN's veteran NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.
In Kiper's latest big board for the 2026 NFL Draft, updated in mid-December 2025, he slotted Mateer as the No. 4 quarterback prospect in a class headlined by Oregon's Dante Moore (No. 1), Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (No. 2, and the Heisman Trophy winner), and Alabama's Ty Simpson (No. 3).
Trailing Mateer in Kiper's top 10 were names like Miami's Carson Beck, Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, and Penn State's Drew Allar.
Kiper, long regarded as the gold standard in draft analysis since joining ESPN in 1984, has championed Mateer's upside despite persistent questions about his size (6-foot-1, approximately 224 pounds) and post-injury consistency.
In fall discussions on ESPN's First Draft podcast, Kiper raved about the dual-threat's creativity: "He can do things in ways that no other quarterback can—jump throws, magical throws, those 'wow' moments that make you ask how he even saw it or why he tried it, but he makes it work."
Highlighting Mateer's rushing exploits from Washington State (over 800 yards in 2024), Kiper dismissed height concerns: "It doesn’t matter—he can run, beat you with his legs, make any throw, and he's fearless."
This praise echoes Kiper's history of bold evaluations, such as ranking Colorado's Shedeur Sanders as the top QB for 2025 despite his eventual fifth-round slide.
While Kiper's views sometimes clash with NFL front offices, his endorsement keeps Mateer relevant in a thinner 2026 QB class lacking the star power of recent cycles.
Mateer's Oklahoma tenure began with immense promise after transferring from Washington State, where he exploded for over 3,100 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 826 rushing yards with 15 scores in 2024.
Early in 2025, he flashed Heisman-level dynamism, helping the Sooners surge in SEC play. However, a mid-season hand injury requiring surgery disrupted his rhythm, leading to streaky play, accuracy issues, and more turnovers upon return.
Statistically, Mateer finished with around 2,578-2,885 passing yards, 12-14 touchdowns, 10-11 interceptions, and solid but diminished rushing production (roughly 416 yards and seven scores).
Despite these hurdles, Oklahoma won its final four regular-season games to reach the playoff, though Mateer's inconsistencies occasionally made him a liability in key moments.
In the playoff opener against Alabama—a 34-24 defeat—Meteer showed flashes of brilliance early, scrambling for scores and engineering a 17-0 lead, but costly errors, including a pick-six, contributed to a collapse.
Postgame, the redshirt junior remained noncommittal on his future: "I haven’t really thought about it yet. I’m pretty sure I’ll take some time and weigh all the options, and we’ll see."
With one year of eligibility left and the underclassman declaration deadline on January 14, 2026, Mateer has weeks to decide.
This brings us to the critical crossroads: If Mateer receives feedback from NFL scouts and advisory committees aligning with Kiper's optimism—projecting him as a Day 1 (first-round) or Day 2 (second or third-round) selection—he should absolutely declare for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Capitalizing on current stock, even amid a thinner class, could secure life-changing money and a pro opportunity sooner.
His athleticism, arm talent, and play-extending magic are traits teams covet in mobile QBs, and waiting risks injury or further regression in a loaded 2027 class.
Conversely, if evaluations peg him as a Day 3 (fourth-round or later) prospect or undrafted free agent—reflecting concerns over mechanics, decision-making, pocket presence, and post-injury dip—he'd be wise to return to Norman.
Another year in coordinator Ben Arbuckle's system could refine his footwork, accuracy on intermediate throws, and pre-snap processing, potentially elevating him to a top-10 overall pick in 2027.
Plus, leading Oklahoma—poised for contention with returning talent—toward an elusive eighth national championship would cement his legacy and boost his profile immeasurably.
Mateer's path from three-star Texas recruit to playoff QB at a powerhouse has been defined by resilience and highlight-reel plays.
Whatever he chooses, Kiper's vote of confidence ensures the NFL door remains ajar, but the decision hinges on honest self-assessment and league feedback.
As of December 21, 2025, the clock is ticking, and Sooners fans—and draftniks—await his call.