John Mateer's undeniable talent meets realistic tweaks needed – health and experience could make 2026 his breakout year in crimson and cream
ESPN's analysis of John Mateer as Oklahoma's projected 2026 starting quarterback comes directly from their recent feature predicting starting QBs for every Power 4 team.
In the piece, ESPN writers—including contributors like Eli Lederman, Max Olson, and Adam Rittenberg—break down the Sooners' quarterback situation heading into the upcoming season, spotlighting Mateer's central role in the program's recent success and his path forward.Oklahoma Sooners
Here is what they said on why he'll start: "Mateer was central to Oklahoma's turnaround from 6-7 in 2024 to 10-2 and a home playoff game at the end of his first season with the Sooners. The former Washington State transfer did have his early-season Heisman Trophy bid tripped up by a September hand injury, and Mateer showed some lapses including late-season decision-making struggles and his 11 interceptions, fifth most among SEC starters. But Mateer's playmaking ability (22 total touchdowns) is undeniable and he should be able to make a jump in 2026 with another year of experience, especially if he can stay healthy through the regular season."
This section underscores ESPN's view of Mateer as the unquestioned leader under center. After transferring in as the top-ranked portal prospect following a breakout 2024 at Washington State (where he led the FBS in total touchdowns with 44), he quickly became the starter in Norman.
His 2025 stats—2,885 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, plus 431 rushing yards and a team-high eight rushing scores—reflected both elite dual-threat production and the inconsistencies ESPN flags, like those interceptions ranking him fifth among SEC starters in picks.
The hand injury, a broken bone in his throwing hand suffered against Auburn, halted an early Heisman push but didn't derail the team's overall resurgence to a 10-2 record and CFP berth.
ESPN credits his return to form potential in 2026, especially with added maturity in Brent Venables' system and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle's scheme.
Here is what they said about possible competition he could face: "Two-year backup Michael Hawkins Jr. transferred to West Virginia after the 2025 season. As things stand, that leaves former Mercer transfer Whitt Newbauer as the one returner to the Sooners' quarterback room in 2026. Bowe Bentley, the nation's No. 2 dual-threat passer in the 2026 cycle, was a priority target for offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and is a name to watch for the future."
With Hawkins Jr. gone via the portal, ESPN notes the QB depth chart is thin for 2026, making Mateer's spot even more secure.
Newbauer, a transfer from Mercer, serves as the primary backup returnee, while incoming freshman Bowe Bentley—highly regarded as a dual-threat prospect—represents long-term upside rather than immediate competition. Arbuckle's personal recruitment of Bentley highlights the staff's focus on building around Mateer's style.
Overall, ESPN frames Mateer as a proven winner whose experience, health, and playmaking set Oklahoma up for another strong run in the SEC and potentially deeper playoff contention.
His return, announced alongside linebacker Kip Lewis, has been celebrated in ESPN coverage as a key piece for the Sooners' future, blending his transfer success story with realistic expectations for refinement in decision-making and consistency.