McMurphy's way-too-early forecast sends Oklahoma to the CFP against Texas Tech, with the Red Raiders predicted to advance
On3's Brett McMurphy, a seasoned college football insider known for his insightful bowl and playoff predictions, has released his way-too-early forecast for the 2026 College Football Playoff.
Among the highlights is his inclusion of the Oklahoma Sooners as the No. 11 seed, setting up a intriguing first-round matchup on the road against No. 6 Texas Tech. However, McMurphy doesn't see a fairy-tale run for Oklahoma, projecting a defeat that would send the Red Raiders to face No. 3 Ohio State in the prestigious Rose Bowl.
McMurphy's full 12-team playoff bracket paints a picture of a highly competitive field dominated by familiar powerhouses and a few surprising entrants. At the top, he slots independent Notre Dame as the No. 1 overall seed, earning a first-round bye and positioning the Fighting Irish as his predicted national champions. The SEC's Georgia Bulldogs claim the No. 2 spot, followed by Big Ten stalwart Ohio State at No. 3 and ACC champion Miami at No. 4. These top four teams receive byes, advancing directly to the quarterfinals hosted at traditional bowl sites.
Diving into the first-round games, which would be played on the campuses of the higher-seeded teams, McMurphy envisions some compelling clashes. The No. 5 Texas Longhorns, in their third season in the SEC with the Sooners, are projected to host No. 12 UTSA. No. 8 Oregon welcomes No. 9 Utah in a Pac-12 remnant rivalry, with the Ducks prevailing 40-20. In the Midwest, No. 7 Indiana takes on No. 10 Texas A&M at home.
But the spotlight for Oklahoma fans falls on the No. 6 vs. No. 11 matchup in Lubbock, Texas. The Sooners, who made the playoff last season but fell short in the first round at home against Alabama, are pegged to travel to Jones AT&T Stadium to face a resurgent Texas Tech squad.
McMurphy projects the Red Raiders emerging victorious. This outcome would eliminate Oklahoma early, continuing a narrative of postseason struggles for the program under head coach Brent Venables.
Why does McMurphy favor Texas Tech in this hypothetical showdown? The Red Raiders, led by new quarterback Brendan Sorsby and a high-octane offense under coordinator Mack Leftwich, have been building momentum after last season's Big 12 championship. Their projected No. 6 seed suggests a strong 2026 campaign, potentially winning the conference title or finishing as runner-up with an at-large berth.
Oklahoma, on the other hand, faces a grueling schedule in their third year in the league, with tough road games against teams like Georgia, and Michigan. McMurphy's projection acknowledges the Sooners' talent—returning key playmakers like quarterback John Mateer and a bolstered defense—but sees the road environment in Lubbock as a decisive factor.
The historical element adds spice; these former Big 12 foes have split their last four meetings, with Oklahoma winning the most recent in 2022.
Should Texas Tech advance as predicted, they'd head to the Rose Bowl for a quarterfinal clash against No. 3 Ohio State. The Buckeyes, loaded with talent under Ryan Day, including a star-studded recruiting class and transfers, are expected to contend in the Big Ten. McMurphy has Ohio State advancing past the Red Raiders en route to the semifinals, but the matchup would pit Texas Tech's explosive passing attack against one of the nation's top defenses.
For Oklahoma fans, this scenario underscores the razor-thin margins in the expanded playoff format—making the field is an achievement, but seeding can make or break a run.
Beyond the Oklahoma angle, McMurphy's bracket raises eyebrows elsewhere. The Big Ten lands three teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon), while the SEC boasts four (Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma), highlighting the conferences' depth.
Notre Dame's top seed and projected title win over Georgia in the championship game suggests McMurphy buys into Marcus Freeman's squad, with a favorable independent schedule avoiding some Power Four pitfalls.
Of course, these are way-too-early predictions, subject to the chaos of injuries, upsets, and portal moves. Spring practices haven't even started, and the 2026 season is months away. Yet, for Sooners faithful, McMurphy's forecast reignites playoff dreams while tempering expectations.
It serves as motivation: prove the doubters wrong and turn that projected road loss into a statement win. As college football evolves, projections like this fuel the offseason hype, reminding us why the sport's unpredictability is its greatest charm.