J.D. PicKell sees John Mateer's potential, but needs to see renewed confidence and offensive line improvements for him to reclaim elite 2026 status
After a rollercoaster 2025 season marked by a promising start, a debilitating injury, and inconsistent team performance, Mateer has become a focal point of offseason discussions. on3 analyst J.D. PicKell, known for his insightful breakdowns on The Hard Count, recently shared his thoughts on why he omitted Mateer from his early top 10 projected quarterbacks for the 2026 season.
PicKell's commentary, delivered in a YouTube segment, blends cautious optimism with a call for tangible improvements, highlighting the factors that could propel Mateer back into elite status.
PicKell begins by reflecting on Mateer's electrifying early-season form in 2025, which had fans and analysts buzzing. "We're watching that Michigan game in week two where uh I mean, he's just throwing darts all over the place saying, 'Okay, one, this dude's different. Two, Oklahoma's different. Three, how good could Oklahoma be this year?'"
PicKell recalls. He describes how Mateer "goes out and does exactly that for the first month, take college football by storm for a minute there." This period was akin to "the John Mateer show," where the quarterback's dual-threat abilities shone brightly, reminiscent of the hype surrounding his transfer from Washington State to Oklahoma ahead of the 2025 campaign.
Mateer, who had shown flashes of brilliance at WSU, was seen as a potential game-changer under offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, whose Air Raid system suited Mateer's arm strength and mobility.
However, a thumb injury derailed what could have been a breakout year. PicKell doesn't mince words about the shift: "It was very evident what he was pre-injury to post-injury was different. And some of it was physical. You could tell like the ball wasn't coming out a certain way."
The analyst points out that even as Mateer recovered physically, mental hurdles lingered. "As he got healthier, the question I think that was fair to have was, well, where is he mentally? That's not saying John Mateer isn't mentally dialed in, but you just say how much does he trust where he's at right now physically."
Post-injury, Mateer adopted a more conservative approach: "Felt like John Mateer played with a different level of uh conservation, which we're not knocking the guy for. It's just obvious when you have an injury, you play a different way."
This caution was evident in games like the one against Alabama, where glimpses of the old Mateer emerged, but overall, the Sooners' offense struggled, failing to capitalize on his talents consistently.
A significant part of PicKell's critique focuses on the lack of support around Mateer. He stresses the need for an improved offensive line and run game to alleviate pressure on the quarterback.
"Everything John Mateer did last season was behind the backdrop of an offense that ran the ball right around two yards a carry at the running back position. That's nowhere near good enough. It's nowhere near good enough to win football games. It's nowhere near good enough to maximize your quarterback."
PicKell draws parallels to other quarterbacks who've suffered from poor protection, like Garrett Nussmeier at LSU, noting, "A big part of playing quarterback in college football is what's going on around you, man."
Without a reliable ground attack, defenses could key in on Mateer: "If I'm a defense, I'm not worried about running the football. Guess what? I get to key on your quarterback. Make his life miserable rushing the passer and I get to give more attention to those receivers."
Looking ahead to 2026, PicKell is clear about what it will take to revisit his rankings. With Mateer announcing his return to Oklahoma—foregoing the 2026 NFL Draft—there's ample opportunity for growth.
"Before we revisit our rankings... I want to hear things like, 'Hey he's on a mission. Hey that guy that was out there in the first part of last year, he's back. Hey he hated the way that last season ended. He's got a different attitude to him, a different level of intensity to him. He's back. Oh, the thumb. Oh, you couldn't even tell. That ball is flying out of his hand. That spiral's tight. Like he's got a different command of the offense now.'"
PicKell craves "spring propaganda" and intel on team improvements: "I want to hear all the spring intel. See some spring propaganda from our guy before we put him into this uh top 10 quarterback projection for next season."
He also wants assurances on the supporting cast: "I want to hear the offensive line's better around him. I want to hear that we got some running backs that can really tote it for him. They're going to help him in general in 2026. Take some pressure off of him."
Despite the current exclusion, PicKell's tone is far from pessimistic. In another discussion, he describes Mateer as a "phenomenal player" who could lead Oklahoma to conference titles and playoff contention if he regains form and the team bolsters its roster via the portal.
"It's not going to take much for me to jump back on the John Mateer hype train and have him top 10 projected heading into 2026," PicKell admits.
He views Mateer as one of the top returning talents in the SEC, provided the Sooners address their deficiencies.
Mateer's journey—from WSU standout to OU transfer, through injury woes—embodies the highs and lows of college football. PicKell's analysis serves as a roadmap for what could be a triumphant 2026: full health, renewed confidence, and a balanced offense.
If Oklahoma delivers on these fronts, Mateer might not just crack the top 10—he could lead the Sooners back to national prominence.
As spring practices loom, all eyes will be on Norman to see if the hype train picks up steam once more.